- The Cubs are -170 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Cubs Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Pirates / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-170) on Sunday, June 15, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Pirates are 29-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 36-35 ATS.
Pirates vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 1-9, 4.16 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Colin Rea 4-2, 3.94 ERA
Pirates vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -150 | O 7.5 -115 | +140 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -105 | -170 |
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 59.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 away games (+15.40 Units / 308% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.45 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.35 Units / 39% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+10.40 Units / 116% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Walks Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 46% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 60 games (+17.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 71 games (+16.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 39 games (+11.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games (+5.75 Units / 22% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 65 games (+11.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 69 games (+11.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+9.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 37% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 34-37 against the Run Line (-9.6 Units / -10.37% ROI).
- 29-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.4 Units / -12.98% ROI
- 26-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.1 Units / -26.66% ROI
- 43-26 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.55 Units / 18.36% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 36-35 against the Run Line (+1.42 Units / 1.64% ROI).
- 43-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.85 Units / 9.35% ROI
- 35-31 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.45 Units / 1.88% ROI
- 31-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.8 Units / -9.87% ROI
Cubs vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Cubs vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
Cubs vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
Cubs vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
| Colin Rea (CHC) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -115 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller allowed a slugging percentage of .563 (138 Total Bases / 245 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller allowed an OPS of .927 (274 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .671 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller allowed an OBP of .364 (272 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OPS of .860 (400 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .675 — second Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 19% (240/1,241) against Colin Rea in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Opponents batted .424 (39-for-92) against Colin Rea on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .330 — first Percentile.
Colin Rea allowed a slugging percentage of .479 (124 Total Bases / 259 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .380 — sixth Percentile.
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 21% (91/437) against Colin Rea in the 2024 season — tied for 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 10th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates are just 9-64 (.123) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates are just 8-50 (.138) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Pirates are just 1-13 (.071) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are 48-13 (.787) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Cubs are 92-52 (.639) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Pirates (30th best runs scored) today.
The Cubs are 23-3 (.885) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
The Cubs are 77-32 (.706) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .626.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .116 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .225.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .320 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .377.
Pirates hitters have put just 25% of their swings in play in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Pirates are batting just .208 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .480 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .808 (1,481 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of just .277 (278 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of just .216 (172 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 5% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 54% of the time this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 52% of the time since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 52% of the time since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Cubs pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 46% of the time this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers walked 127 of 1,437 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cubs pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 6% of batters this month (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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