- The Pirates are -110 favorites vs the Cubs
- Pirates vs Cubs Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Pirates / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | SNPT | MLBN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (-110) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-110) on Friday, May 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Pirates are 20-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 25-20 ATS.
Pirates vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 0-0, 6.76 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Kyle Hendricks 0-3, 10.18 ERA
Pirates vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | -1.5 +155 | O 7.5 -120 | -110 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -190 | U 7.5 +100 | -110 |
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jared Triolo has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 26 games (+19.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 games (+17.80 Units / 148% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+14.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+14.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 26 games (+9.90 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 12 games at home (+16.90 Units / 141% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+14.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+12.25 Units / 82% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 29 games (+12.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.85 Units / 28% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 34 games (+15.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+10.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 34 games (+6.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+0.85 Units / 9% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+8.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 43 games (+8.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 41 games (+7.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+3.20 Units / 13% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 23-22 against the Run Line (-1.74 Units / -2.85% ROI).
- 20-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.1 Units / -13.31% ROI
- 20-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -7.85% ROI
- 22-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.43 Units / 0.87% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 25-20 against the Run Line (+0.95 Units / 1.5% ROI).
- 25-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.5 Units / 12.07% ROI
- 19-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.65 Units / -17.4% ROI
- 25-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.15 Units / 8.41% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paul Skenes has limited playing time.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Hendricks has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.6 MPH on non-fastballs since last season (259 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 87.4
Kyle Hendricks has allowed a slugging percentage of .935 (58 Total Bases / 62 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: .533 — 0 Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has thrown his changeup 64% of the time (452/710) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has averaged 87.6 MPH on fastballs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — first Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates are just 72-16 (.818) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Pirates are just 127-67 (.655) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Pirates are just 27-42 (.391) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.
The Pirates are just 115-27 (.810) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are 25-20 (.556) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .427.
The Cubs are just 10-14 (.417) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 16-30 (.348) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Cubs are 49-53 (.480) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 162 strikeouts in 473 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .615 (1,198 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .694.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .323 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .384.
The Pirates are batting just .152 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .451 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .842 (429 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .681.
The Cubs are batting .279 in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .232.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .346 (374 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,322 of 14,208 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 2 of 116 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Pirates pitchers are throwing just 3.73 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Pirates pitchers have won 38% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 20 double plays in 342 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.4 MPH since last season (5,171 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (4,045 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Cubs vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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