- The Cubs are -200 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Cubs Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Pirates / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | ESPN+ | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+165) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-200) on Saturday, May 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Pirates are 21-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 25-21 ATS.
Pirates vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 2-2, 4.13 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Shota Imanaga 5-0, 0.97 ERA
Pirates vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -120 | O 7.5 +100 | +165 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +100 | U 7.5 -120 | -200 |
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 64.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Connor Joe has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+16.80 Units / 129% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+11.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+10.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+7.95 Units / 72% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 13 games at home (+15.90 Units / 122% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+15.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+13.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 30 games (+11.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 31 games (+10.05 Units / 24% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 35 games (+14.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+9.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+1.85 Units / 17% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games (+7.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 44 games (+7.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 42 games (+6.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.10 Units / 55% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 24-22 against the Run Line (-0.24 Units / -0.39% ROI).
- 21-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.1 Units / -11.19% ROI
- 21-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.9 Units / -5.72% ROI
- 22-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.77 Units / -1.52% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 25-21 against the Run Line (-0.8 Units / -1.23% ROI).
- 25-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.45 Units / 9.93% ROI
- 20-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.65 Units / -15.09% ROI
- 25-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.95 Units / 5.84% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (34/105) against Bailey Falter this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — eighth Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (224/474) against right-handed batters this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (14/43) against Bailey Falter in two-strike counts this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — sixth Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown elevated pitches 49% of the time (234/474) against right-handed batters this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shota Imanaga has allowed an OBP of just .167 (72 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — 98th Percentile.
Shota Imanaga has allowed an OPS of just .299 (72 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: .697 — 100th Percentile.
Shota Imanaga has allowed a slugging percentage of just .132 (9 Total Bases / 68 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .378 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .118 (8-for-68) against Shota Imanaga when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — 97th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates are just 66-90 (.423) after a win since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Pirates are just 77-110 (.412) on the road since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .476.
The Pirates are just 128-67 (.656) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Pirates are just 152-181 (.456) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are just 10-14 (.417) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 16-30 (.348) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Cubs are 25-21 (.543) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .426.
The Cubs are just 39-39 (.500) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .152 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .179 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .331 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .385.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .504 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .585.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
27% of Cubs hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Cubs hitters have drawn 133 walks in 1,365 PA’s (10%) against RHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .346 (374 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .842 (429 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .680.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,326 of 14,243 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have won 38% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 51% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 20 double plays in 350 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 33% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cubs pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Cubs vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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