- The Diamondbacks are -250 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Pirates / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | SNPT | MLBN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+200) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-250) on Tuesday, May 27, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Pirates are 19-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 25-29 ATS.
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Michael Burrows 0-1, 7.21 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes 3-2, 2.75 ERA
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 +105 | O 8.5 +100 | +200 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 -125 | U 8.5 -120 | -250 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 67.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+14.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- Alexander Canario has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 45% ROI)
- Alexander Canario has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 45% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 7 away games (+9.00 Units / 129% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Gabriel Moreno has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+13.00 Units / 217% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- Corbin Burnes has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.95 Units / 61% ROI)
- Pavin Smith has hit the Walks Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.80 Units / 46% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 54 games (+13.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 17 games (+1.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.30 Units / 18% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 38 games (+14.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 38 games (+11.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+9.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 16% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 22-33 against the Run Line (-17.7 Units / -24.93% ROI).
- 19-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.85 Units / -24.38% ROI
- 20-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.95 Units / -24.79% ROI
- 32-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.05 Units / 16.56% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 25-29 against the Run Line (-8.81 Units / -12.53% ROI).
- 27-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.1 Units / -7.06% ROI
- 23-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -7 Units / -11.75% ROI
- 27-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 2.53% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr (ARI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Gabriel Moreno (ARI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr (ARI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Burrows (PIT) | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -135 |
| Corbin Burnes (ARI) | 6.5 +135 | 6.5 -175 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Burrows has limited playing time.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 74% of the time (233/316) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 65% of the time (356/552) since the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
33% of Corbin Burnes’ strikeouts are in the zone since last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 70% of the time (384/552) since the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Pirates are just 6-20 (.231) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .437.
The Pirates are just 11-43 (.204) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Pirates are just 1-11 (.083) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .377.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Diamondbacks were 67-15 (.807) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Diamondbacks were 13-51 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Diamondbacks are 89-22 (.795) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Diamondbacks were 5-59 (.077) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .302 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .386.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .583 (957 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .695.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 36% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 35% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have struck out in just 16% of it’s PA’s against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Diamondbacks are batting .277 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .445 with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 42% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Diamondbacks pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 21% in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Batters facing the Diamondbacks pitchers have struck out in the zone 47% of the time since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
More MLB Reading:
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