- The Pirates are +105 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Pirates vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Pirates / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-135) on Wednesday, May 28, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 3:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Pirates are 20-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 25-30 ATS.
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 3-5, 2.36 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zac Gallen 3-6, 5.26 ERA
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -210 | O 7.5 -102 | +115 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +170 | U 7.5 -118 | -135 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 52.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+11.10 Units / 111% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- Paul Skenes has hit the Earned Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- Alexander Canario has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Gabriel Moreno has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+12.00 Units / 171% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- Pavin Smith has hit the Walks Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.75 Units / 21% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 23 games (+12.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 55 games (+12.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 44 games (+11.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.90 Units / 13% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 games (+15.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 39 games (+12.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+3.05 Units / 13% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 23-33 against the Run Line (-16.6 Units / -23.06% ROI).
- 20-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.65 Units / -20.44% ROI
- 21-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.95 Units / -22.7% ROI
- 32-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +9 Units / 14.57% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 25-30 against the Run Line (-10.11 Units / -14.12% ROI).
- 27-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.7 Units / -10.29% ROI
- 24-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -6 Units / -9.88% ROI
- 27-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.45 Units / 0.75% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr (ARI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Spencer Horwitz (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen (ARI) | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paul Skenes has allowed an OBP of just .136 (147 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .086 (12-for-139) against Paul Skenes with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .161 — 98th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has allowed a slugging percentage of just .215 (20 Total Bases / 93 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .374 — 97th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has allowed an OPS of just .473 (99 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .667 — 97th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zac Gallen has a strike rate of just 58% (319/547) vs left-handed batters this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — sixth Percentile.
Zac Gallen has allowed an OPS of 1.056 (97 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .726 — second Percentile.
Zac Gallen had a in-zone of just 34% (34/100) in his last start — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 51% — first Percentile.
Zac Gallen has a in-zone of just 34% (34/100) over the past seven days (1 game) — lowest among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 51% — second Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Pirates are just 9-63 (.125) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Pirates are just 12-43 (.218) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Pirates are just 7-20 (.259) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .438.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Diamondbacks are 155-40 (.791) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
The Diamondbacks were 5-59 (.077) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Diamondbacks are just 23-5 (.821) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .904.
The Diamondbacks are just 25-2 (.926) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .957.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have struck out in 35% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have put just 25% of their swings in play in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Pirates are batting just .115 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .148.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 36% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have put 43% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Diamondbacks are batting .277 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Diamondbacks hitters had an OBP of .347 (3,080 PA’s) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .452 with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Diamondbacks pitchers have struck out in the zone 47% of the time since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Diamondbacks pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 21% in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks pitchers had an ERA of 4.68 (739.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
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