- The Padres are -165 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Pirates / Padres TV Channel: PDTV | SNPT | ESPN+
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-165) on Monday, August 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Pirates are 56-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 61-58 ATS.
Pirates vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Marco Gonzales 1-1, 4.55 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Joe Musgrove 3-4, 5.74 ERA
Pirates vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -155 | O 8 -105 | +140 |
| Padres | -1.5 +125 | U 8 -115 | -165 |
Pirates vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s MLB game with 57.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 44 games (+20.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+19.20 Units / 213% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 46 games (+13.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+11.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+10.45 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 48 games (+53.10 Units / 111% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+13.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+13.05 Units / 69% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 29 games (+12.20 Units / 26% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 78 games (+15.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+11.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 55 games (+6.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 36 away games (+4.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 away games (+4.30 Units / 20% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 42 games (+14.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games at home (+11.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 87 games (+8.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+6.10 Units / 20% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 65-52 against the Run Line (+10.61 Units / 7.03% ROI).
- 56-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.35 Units / -4.68% ROI
- 55-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.85 Units / -6.82% ROI
- 58-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.72 Units / -1.35% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 61-58 against the Run Line (+4.9 Units / 3.3% ROI).
- 66-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.55 Units / 1.63% ROI
- 64-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.25 Units / 4.81% ROI
- 53-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.95 Units / -13.59% ROI
Padres vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Kyle Higashioka (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Padres vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Padres vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Kyle Higashioka (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marco Gonzales (PIT) | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -155 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 11% (48 SO in 425 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 176 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has thrown his changeup 35% of the time (1,142/3,280) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 176 total CH; League Avg: 13% — 98th Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has an average fastball velocity of just 88.8 MPH since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 176 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .338 (27 GB hits out of 80 GBs) against Marco Gonzales with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 176 total IP; League Avg: .239 — first Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% (100/307) against Joe Musgrove on fastballs since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 176 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .305 (58-for-190) against Joe Musgrove this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: .244 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .332 (68-for-205) against Joe Musgrove versus the 2-3-4 hitters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total IP; League Avg: .256 — first Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an OBP of .374 (214 PA’s) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: .306 — second Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Pirates are just 31-64 (.326) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Pirates are just 12-18 (.400) after a home win this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Pirates are just 17-28 (.378) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 45-61 (.425) after a home win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Padres are 48-4 (.923) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .855.
The Padres are 67-52 (.563) after a road win since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .487.
The Padres are 23-14 (.622) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Padres are just 14-16 (.467) after a home loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 43 extra-base hits out of 169 total hits (just 25%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .497 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .581.
Pirates hitters have 203 strikeouts in 585 PA’s (35%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have 433 strikeouts in 1,280 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .281 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .323 (11,960 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .331 (3,171 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Padres hitters have just 566 strikeouts in 3,171 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,545 of 16,966 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% over the last 14 days — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 459.1 feet — — 5th shortest in MLB; League Avg: 473.2
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% against Pirates pitchers this month (9 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,819 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a miss rate of 33% against Padres pitchers this month (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres): Personal, Out
- Rougned Odor (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tom Cosgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Suspension, Suspension
- Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Fernando Tatis (San Diego Padres): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Bryan Reynolds (Pittsburgh Pirates): Back, Day-To-Day
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Bailey Falter (Pittsburgh Pirates): Triceps, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Borucki (Pittsburgh Pirates): Wrist, 60-Day IL
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