- The Padres are -135 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Pirates / Padres TV Channel: PDTV | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-135) on Wednesday, August 14, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Pirates are 56-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 62-59 ATS.
Pirates vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 10-6, 3.60 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Martin Perez 2-5, 4.72 ERA
Pirates vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -200 | O 8 +100 | +110 |
| Padres | -1.5 +165 | U 8 -120 | -135 |
Pirates vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 52.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 46 games (+19.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 11 games (+17.20 Units / 156% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 48 games (+13.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 44 games (+9.30 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 50 games (+51.10 Units / 102% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 31 games (+15.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 38 games (+13.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 33 of his last 45 games (+13.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+12.40 Units / 38% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 80 games (+15.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games (+9.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 57 games (+8.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 38 away games (+3.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 38 away games (+3.00 Units / 7% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 44 games (+16.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+9.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 89 games (+8.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+6.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 28 games at home (+4.25 Units / 9% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 66-53 against the Run Line (+10.51 Units / 6.86% ROI).
- 56-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.35 Units / -6.07% ROI
- 55-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.05 Units / -8.37% ROI
- 60-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.28 Units / 0.22% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 62-59 against the Run Line (+4.9 Units / 3.25% ROI).
- 68-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.55 Units / 2.83% ROI
- 64-55 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.05 Units / 3.06% ROI
- 55-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.95 Units / -11.88% ROI
Padres vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Padres vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Padres vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
| Martin Perez (SD) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has allowed an OPS of .876 (202 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .677 — fifth Percentile.
Mitch Keller has walked 66 of 774 batters (9%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — eighth Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of .527 (96 Total Bases / 182 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .387 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .192 (35-for-182) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 87th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Martin Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of .703 (64 Total Bases / 91 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .427 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 16% (91/581) against Martin Perez since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Martin Perez has allowed an OBP of just .170 (47 PA’s) this month (2 games) — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .294 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .367 (51-for-139) against Martin Perez versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .254 — 0 Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Pirates are just 6-33 (.154) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Pirates are just 80-112 (.417) after a win since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
The Pirates are just 45-61 (.425) after a home win since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Pirates are just 157-79 (.665) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Padres are 9-45 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .105.
The Padres are 40-26 (.606) after a win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Padres are 49-4 (.925) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Padres are 23-14 (.622) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .493 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .361 against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .495 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .580.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .659 (3,304 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .281 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Padres hitters have just 232 strikeouts in 1,327 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 981 strikeouts in 4,893 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 575 strikeouts in 3,228 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% against Pirates pitchers this month (11 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% this month (11 games) — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Pirates have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,547 of 17,026 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 33% against Padres pitchers this month (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres): Personal, Out
- Rougned Odor (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tom Cosgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Suspension, Suspension
- Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Fernando Tatis (San Diego Padres): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Bryan Reynolds (Pittsburgh Pirates): Back, Day-To-Day
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Bailey Falter (Pittsburgh Pirates): Triceps, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Borucki (Pittsburgh Pirates): Wrist, 60-Day IL
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