- The Phillies are -285 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Pirates / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+240) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-300) on Saturday, May 17, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Pirates are 15-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 22-22 ATS.
Pirates vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Carmen Mlodzinski 1-3, 5.25 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 4-1, 2.95 ERA
Pirates vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +2.5 -150 | O 8.5 -102 | +240 |
| Phillies | -2.5 +115 | U 8.5 -118 | -300 |
Pirates vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 68.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+12.45 Units / 49% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+11.65 Units / 68% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+10.20 Units / 170% ROI)
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+8.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games at home (+6.10 Units / 40% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
Phillies Best Bets Today:
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 18-27 against the Run Line (-14.25 Units / -24.76% ROI).
- 15-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.05 Units / -25.89% ROI
- 17-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.2 Units / -20.69% ROI
- 25-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.4 Units / 12.88% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 22-22 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -2.93% ROI).
- 26-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.85 Units / 2.64% ROI
- 20-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.25 Units / -10.81% ROI
- 23-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.2 Units / 2.49% ROI
Phillies vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -300 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Phillies vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Phillies vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Phillies vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | 7.5 -118 | 7.5 -110 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -155 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .397 (27-for-68) against Carmen Mlodzinski when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .500 (19-for-38) against Carmen Mlodzinski on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .328 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .652 (15-for-23) against Carmen Mlodzinski on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: .344 — 0 Percentile.
Carmen Mlodzinski has a strikeout rate of just 36% (72 SO in 198 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 44% — seventh Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has allowed an OBP of just .212 (449 PA’s) against right-handed batters since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .285 — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler allowed an OBP of just .201 (368 PA’s) against right-handed batters in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted just .161 (56-for-348) against Zack Wheeler in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .111 (59-for-533) against Zack Wheeler with two-strikes since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .161 — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates are just 7-59 (.106) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 0-19 (.000) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
The Pirates are just 0-15 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies are 6-13 (.316) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .121.
The Phillies were 83-15 (.847) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Phillies were 54-27 (.667) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Phillies are 118-67 (.638) at home since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .526.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .330 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 34% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .506 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Pirates hitters struck out 417 times in 1,598 PA’s (26%) against LHP in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .272 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .779 (2,425 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Phillies hitters slugged .441 against LHP in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Phillies hitters had an OPS of .783 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
More MLB Reading:
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