- The Pirates are -115 favorites vs the Phillies
- Pirates vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Pirates / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-105) on Sunday, May 18, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA, PA.
This season, the Pirates are 15-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 23-22 ATS.
Pirates vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 3-4, 2.64 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Mick Abel 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Pirates vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 -115 | -115 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -105 | -105 |
Pirates vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 5 games (+11.00 Units / 220% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.45 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games (+11.50 Units / 115% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.95 Units / 43% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games (+9.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 14 away games (+2.00 Units / 13% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+7.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games (+6.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+6.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 41 games (+5.48 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+5.30 Units / 10% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 18-28 against the Run Line (-15.25 Units / -26.05% ROI).
- 15-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.05 Units / -27.33% ROI
- 17-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.35 Units / -22.5% ROI
- 26-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.4 Units / 14.58% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 23-22 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -1.01% ROI).
- 27-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.85 Units / 3.89% ROI
- 20-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.4 Units / -12.88% ROI
- 24-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.2 Units / 4.46% ROI
Phillies vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Phillies vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Phillies vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Spencer Horwitz (TOR) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Phillies vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mick Abel (PHI) | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -155 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paul Skenes has allowed an OBP of just .134 (119 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 98th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has allowed an OPS of just .259 (119 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .488 — 98th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has allowed an OPS of just .259 (119 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .486 — 97th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has allowed a slugging percentage of just .125 (14 Total Bases / 112 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .252 — 97th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates are just 7-60 (.104) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Pirates are just 0-20 (.000) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .176.
The Pirates are just 3-12 (.200) after a win this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .502.
The Pirates are just 11-40 (.216) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .365.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies are 13-135 (.088) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Phillies are 6-13 (.316) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .126.
The Phillies are just 16-24 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Phillies were 28-22 (.560) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Braves (15th best runs scored) today.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .324 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Pirates hitters struck out 417 times in 1,598 PA’s (26%) against LHP in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 39% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Pirates are batting just .206 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .444 against LHP since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
The Phillies are batting .272 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .336 (4,306 PA’s) against LHP since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 64% at home since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 53% of the time since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Pirates pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 5% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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