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The Pittsburgh Pirates () visit George M. Steinbrenner Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays () on Wednesday, April 2, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Tampa, FL.
This season, the Pirates are 1-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 3-2 ATS.
Pirates vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 0-0, 3.38 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot 0-0, 1.59 ERA
Pirates vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | O | ||
| Rays | U |
Pirates vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 52.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+9.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+8.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 20 away games (+7.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.45 Units / 75% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+14.40 Units / 240% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.45 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+12.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+8.15 Units / 81% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 74 away games (+7.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 67 of their last 123 games (+5.40 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 away games (+2.55 Units / 62% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 94 of their last 156 games (+27.66 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 86 games (+22.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 90 of their last 153 games (+21.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 91 games (+11.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.80 Units / 32% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 1-5 against the Run Line (-4.8 Units / -61.15% ROI).
- 1-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.7 Units / -66.67% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.55 Units / -37.23% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.9 Units / 29.92% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 3-2 against the Run Line (+1.5 Units / 29.41% ROI).
- 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.15 Units / 23.24% ROI
- 1-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.35 Units / -60.91% ROI
- 4-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.95 Units / 53.64% ROI
Rays vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Tommy Pham (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Rays vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Tommy Pham (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jake Mangum (TB) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Rays vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Pham (PIT) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -285 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Rays vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 -110 |
| Ryan Pepiot (: Strikeouts | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -135 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paul Skenes has a strikeout rate of 39% (83 SO in 213 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 73% (8/11) against Paul Skenes this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Paul Skenes had a strikeout rate of 39% (79/204) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has a strikeout rate of 41% (61 SO in 150 PAs) versus the bottom of the order since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Pepiot allowed an OBP of just .147 (75 PA’s) vs left-handed batters in 2023 — best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .316 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters hit just .111 (8-for-72) against Ryan Pepiot in 2023 — 2nd best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .229 — 98th Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot allowed an OBP of just .220 (159 PA’s) in 2023 — best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .312 — 100th Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot allowed an OPS of just .383 (75 PA’s) vs left-handed batters in 2023 — 2nd best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .689 — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates were just 7-37 (.159) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Pirates were just 37-49 (.430) after a loss in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .503.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Rays are 12-128 (.085) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Rays are 86-20 (.811) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
The Rays were 70-1 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Rays are 75-21 (.781) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters struck out 5 times in 11 PA’s (46%) against LHP over the last 14 days of the regular season (3 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters have 5 strikeouts in 11 PA’s (46%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .100 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .384.
Pirates hitters have put just 21% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have an OPS of just .454 (56 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .693.
The Rays are batting .588 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .307.
Rays hitters have just 19 strikeouts in 130 PA’s (15%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rays hitters slugged just .366 at home in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have allowed a run 34% of the time after an opposing score since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Pirates pitchers have 274 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — 3rd most in MLB.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 55% of their games since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 52% of their games since the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 3 of 171 batters (2%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers walked 3 of 171 batters (2%) over the last 14 days of the regular season (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers walked 3 of 171 batters (2%) over the last week of the regular season (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 54% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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