- The Rays are -200 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Rays Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Pirates / Rays TV Channel: FSUN | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+165) visit George M. Steinbrenner Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-200) on Monday, March 31, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Tampa, FL.
This season, the Pirates are 1-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 1-2 ATS.
Pirates vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Carmen Mlodzinski 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Pirates vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -140 | O 8 -110 | +165 |
| Rays | -1.5 +115 | U 8 -110 | -200 |
Pirates vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Monday‘s MLB game with 59.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+9.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+8.65 Units / 108% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 away games (+6.50 Units / 162% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games at home (+15.40 Units / 308% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+11.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jonny Deluca has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 49% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 74 away games (+7.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 67 of their last 123 games (+5.40 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 away games (+2.55 Units / 62% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 96 of their last 159 games (+28.56 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 86 games (+22.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 90 of their last 153 games (+21.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 91 games (+11.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.80 Units / 32% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 1-3 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -39.6% ROI).
- 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.7 Units / -53.47% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.3 Units / -6.52% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.1 Units / -2.38% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 1-2 against the Run Line (-0.9 Units / -29.03% ROI).
- 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 2.59% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -33.85% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.95 Units / 28.36% ROI
Rays vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Danny Jansen (TB) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Rays vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Tommy Pham (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Rays vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Rays vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen (TB) | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -145 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .136 (9-for-66) against Carmen Mlodzinski’s elevated fastball since the 2023 season — 11th best among among 109 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .205 — 90th Percentile.
Carmen Mlodzinski has a strike rate of just 60% (280/464) against right-handed batters since last season — tied for 3rd lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.
Carmen Mlodzinski had a strike rate of just 60% (280/464) against right-handed batters in the 2024 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.
Carmen Mlodzinski has walked 22 of 202 right-handed batters (11%) since the 2023 season — tied for 10th highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 8% — 15th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Rasmussen has not allowed a HR in any of his last six starts dating back to May 6th, 2023 — Shawn Armstrong has the longest active streak at 14.
Drew Rasmussen has not allowed a home run in any of the last 41.1 innings he’s appeared — Calvin Faucher has the longest active streak at 56.0.
Drew Rasmussen has not allowed a walk in any of his last five starts — tied with Jared Koenig for the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates were just 65-7 (.903) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Pirates are just 135-10 (.931) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Rays are 60-4 (.923) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Rays are 36-64 (.360) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Rays are 124-12 (.912) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Rays are 12-128 (.085) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are hitless in 6 AB’s against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Pirates hitters are slugging .000 against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .386.
The Pirates are hitless in 6 AB’s against LHP this month (2 games) — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .143 (7 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .686.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays are batting .318 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Rays are batting just .148 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays hitters are slugging .500 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .203.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 52% of their games since the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Pirates pitchers had 266 three-pitch strikeouts in the 2024 season — 3rd most in MLB.
Pirates pitchers have allowed a run 34% of the time after an opposing score since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Pirates pitchers have 269 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — tied for 3rd most in MLB.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 3 of 106 batters (3%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Rays pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have walked 448 of 6,128 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 53% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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