- The Rays are -110 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Rays vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Rays / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | BSUN | MLBN
The Tampa Bay Rays (-110) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-110) on Thursday, May 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Rays are 22-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 20-23 ATS.
Rays vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Zack Littell 2-2, 3.07 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Cooper Criswell 2-1, 2.13 ERA
Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +155 | O 7.5 -105 | -110 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -190 | U 7.5 -115 | -110 |
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 18 games (+16.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+14.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 41 games (+12.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+10.90 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 23 games (+13.50 Units / 59% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 31 games (+11.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 30 games (+9.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+9.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 41 games (+16.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+5.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+2.60 Units / 16% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 30 games (+14.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 43 games (+9.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 43 games (+7.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+3.30 Units / 26% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 20-24 against the Run Line (-4.8 Units / -8.36% ROI).
- 22-22 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.95 Units / -13.54% ROI
- 23-21 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 21-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.35 Units / -8.96% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 20-23 against the Run Line (-6.85 Units / -11.59% ROI).
- 22-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -1.07% ROI
- 14-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.15 Units / -32.41% ROI
- 27-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.55 Units / 24.11% ROI
Red Sox vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Red Sox vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Vaughn Grissom (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Dominic Smith (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Red Sox vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Littell (TB) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
| Cooper Criswell (BOS) | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
5 of Zack Littell’s 16 breaking pitch strikeouts (31%) have been backdoor this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.
5 of Zack Littell’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for most among among AL Starters; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .308 (20-for-65) against Zack Littell when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 3rd highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: .219 — eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (44/134) against Zack Littell this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cooper Criswell has induced opposing hitters to ground into 9 double plays in 48 opportunities (19%) since last season — 6th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 20% (49/245) against Cooper Criswell since last season — 6th lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 29% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 77% (23/30) against Cooper Criswell’s changeup this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 98th Percentile.
Cooper Criswell has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last six games dating back to September 12nd, 2022 — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are 18-8 (.692) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are just 14-33 (.298) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Rays are 44-14 (.759) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Rays are just 7-19 (.269) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are just 1-91 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Red Sox are just 16-22 (.421) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 78-7 (.918) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Red Sox are 82-5 (.943) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Rays scored first in 71% of their games against division opponents in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Rays are batting .267 against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 133 strikeouts in 439 PA’s (30%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 30% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters have 47 strikeouts in 142 PA’s (33%) against LHP over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of just .568 (476 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .679.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have walked 206 of 3,286 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 108 of 1,584 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 125 of 1,823 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 30% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Red Sox vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Taylor Walls (Tampa Bay Rays): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Jonny DeLuca (Tampa Bay Rays): Hand, 10-Day IL
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane Baz (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Taj Bradley (Tampa Bay Rays): Pectoral, 15-Day IL
- Josh Lowe (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays): Quadriceps, Day-To-Day
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Suspension
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