- The Yankees are -220 favorites vs the Rays
- Rays vs Yankees Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Rays / Yankees TV Channel: YES | FSUN | WTOG | MLBN
The Tampa Bay Rays (+195) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-235) on Friday, May 2, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx, NY.
This season, the Rays are 14-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 16-15 ATS.
Rays vs Yankees Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot 2-3, 4.28 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Max Fried 5-0, 1.20 ERA
Rays vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -110 | O 8.5 -110 | +195 |
| Yankees | -1.5 -110 | U 8.5 -110 | -235 |
Rays vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s MLB game with 63.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Junior Caminero has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Junior Caminero has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+10.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Taylor Walls has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)
- Curtis Mead has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+8.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- Curtis Mead has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.70 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games (+21.00 Units / 210% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+16.55 Units / 65% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+14.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- Austin Wells has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+10.55 Units / 117% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+9.45 Units / 63% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 away games (+6.00 Units / 115% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in their last 5 away games (+5.45 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.40 Units / 28% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.52 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 15 games at home (+5.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 31 games (+4.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 31 games (+4.10 Units / 12% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 13-18 against the Run Line (-5.65 Units / -14.85% ROI).
- 14-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.35 Units / -15.58% ROI
- 12-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.55 Units / -19.18% ROI
- 17-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +4 Units / 11.73% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 16-15 against the Run Line (+2.4 Units / 6.97% ROI).
- 18-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 3.9% ROI
- 14-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.25 Units / -6.67% ROI
- 15-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.53 Units / -1.54% ROI
Yankees vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Yankees vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Chandler Simpson (TB) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Anthony Volpe (NYY) | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Yankees vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Yankees vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Fried (NYY) | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
| Ryan Pepiot (TB) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Pepiot allowed an OBP of just .147 (75 PA’s) vs left-handed batters in 2023 — best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .316 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters hit just .111 (8-for-72) against Ryan Pepiot in 2023 — 2nd best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .229 — 98th Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot allowed a BABIP of .089 vs left-handed batters in 2023 — best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .285 — 100th Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot has allowed a slugging percentage of .841 (53 Total Bases / 63 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: .525 — second Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .280 against Max Fried non-fastballs this season — fifth worst among qualified SPs– sixth Percentile. Opponents batted just .177 (52-for-293) against him non-fastballs last season — tied for fifth best among qualified SPs– 92nd Percentile.
6 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — 2nd most among among AL Starters; League Avg: nan — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 62% (113/183) against Max Fried in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .202 (20-for-99) against Max Fried on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .334 — 100th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Rays are 2-14 (.125) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .038.
The Rays are 14-141 (.090) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Rays are just 6-10 (.375) after a loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .504.
The Rays are 33-129 (.204) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .139.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Yankees are 45-26 (.634) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Rays (eighth best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees were 48-10 (.828) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Yankees are 89-28 (.761) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .625.
The Yankees are just 0-11 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .117.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters had an OBP of .330 (4,837 PA’s) against RHP in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Rays hitters had a groundball batting average of .283 in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Rays hitters slugged just .358 against RHP in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Rays hitters slugged just .366 in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have a swing rate of just 44% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 12% of its PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have an OBP of .429 (147 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 29 double plays in 199 opportunities (15%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Rays pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .213 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .231 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
More MLB Reading:
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