- The Yankees are -190 favorites vs the Rays
- Rays vs Yankees Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Rays / Yankees TV Channel: YES | FSUN
The Tampa Bay Rays (+155) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-190) on Sunday, May 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Bronx, NY.
This season, the Rays are 15-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 17-16 ATS.
Rays vs Yankees Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley 2-2, 4.59 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Will Warren 1-1, 5.71 ERA
Rays vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -130 | O 9 -120 | +155 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +110 | U 9 +100 | -190 |
Rays vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 57.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Junior Caminero has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- Junior Caminero has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+10.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- Danny Jansen has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 47% ROI)
- Danny Jansen has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- Taj Bradley has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.35 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+18.45 Units / 53% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+16.60 Units / 65% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.30 Units / 48% ROI)
- Austin Wells has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+9.15 Units / 92% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 64% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games (+10.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 away games (+6.80 Units / 94% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.45 Units / 55% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.52 Units / 43% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 33 games (+6.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games (+6.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 17 games at home (+5.15 Units / 28% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 14-19 against the Run Line (-5.65 Units / -14.07% ROI).
- 15-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -12.98% ROI
- 12-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.85 Units / -24.28% ROI
- 19-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +6 Units / 16.57% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 17-16 against the Run Line (+2.3 Units / 6.26% ROI).
- 19-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 1.32% ROI
- 14-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.55 Units / -12.63% ROI
- 17-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.47 Units / 4.02% ROI
Yankees vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -300 |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jasson Dominguez (NYY) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Yankees vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Chandler Simpson (TB) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jasson Dominguez (NYY) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Yankees vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jasson Dominguez (NYY) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Yankees vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Warren (NYY) | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Taj Bradley (TB) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .087 (2-for-23) against Taj Bradley’s elevated fastball this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .216 — 93rd Percentile.
Taj Bradley has a first-pitch strike rate of just 54% (79/147) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .319 (15-for-47) against Taj Bradley when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — seventh Percentile.
Taj Bradley allowed a slugging percentage of 1.014 (72 Total Bases / 71 ABs) when he was behind in the count in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .622 — 0 Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 30% (96/319) against Will Warren in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 38% of Will Warren’s pitches (177/470) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 36% (112/315) against Will Warren this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.
Will Warren has allowed three-ball counts to 32% of batters they faced (34/105 PA’s) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 20% — first Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Rays are 14-142 (.089) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Rays are 2-15 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .040.
The Rays are just 7-11 (.389) after a loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .501.
The Rays are 4-16 (.200) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Yankees were 48-10 (.828) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Yankees were 37-21 (.638) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Tigers (fifth best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees are 46-27 (.630) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Rays (eighth best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees are 58-16 (.784) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .635.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays are batting just .180 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Rays hitters had a groundball batting average of .311 with runners on base in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
The Rays scored first in 71% of their games against division opponents in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters are slugging just .266 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .373.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have a swing rate of just 44% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters are slugging .504 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .373.
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 12% of its PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Rays pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a swing rate of 50% against the Rays pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Rays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 29 double plays in 206 opportunities (14%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .164 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Yankees pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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