- The Blue Jays are -140 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Red Sox / Blue Jays TV Channel: NESN | RSN | TVA
The Boston Red Sox (+120) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-140) on Wednesday, September 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Red Sox are 80-78 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 77-81 ATS.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Richard Fitts 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman 13-11, 3.93 ERA
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -185 | O 8 -105 | +120 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -115 | -140 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 53.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 47 games (+16.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+14.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the Singles Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.90 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+11.05 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Addison Barger has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+14.90 Units / 149% ROI)
- Davis Schneider has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+12.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 28 games (+11.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Davis Schneider has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Davis Schneider has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 29 games (+10.50 Units / 35% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 59 away games (+9.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 77 away games (+8.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 77 away games (+8.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.70 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 54 games at home (+16.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games (+9.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 47 games (+5.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 55 games (+4.60 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.15 Units / 59% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 75-83 against the Run Line (-17.75 Units / -8.44% ROI).
- 80-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.6 Units / -3.41% ROI
- 78-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.9 Units / -0.52% ROI
- 72-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.3 Units / -7.71% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 77-81 against the Run Line (-18.35 Units / -8.57% ROI).
- 73-85 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.55 Units / -10.2% ROI
- 79-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.25 Units / -1.31% ROI
- 74-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.35 Units / -7.7% ROI
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Addison Barger (TOR) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ernie Clement (TOR) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Addison Barger (TOR) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Spencer Horwitz (TOR) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Leo Jimenez (TOR) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Spencer Horwitz (TOR) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Addison Barger (TOR) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman (TOR) | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +110 |
| Richard Fitts (BOS) | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -145 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Richard Fitts has pitched 15.2 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Kevin Kelly has the longest active streak at 27.0.
Richard Fitts has thrown his slider 47% of the time (112/236) this month (3 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 99th Percentile.
Richard Fitts has a strikeout rate of just 11% (7 SO in 63 PAs) this month (3 games) — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Richard Fitts has not allowed a HR in any of his last three starts dating back to September 8th — Beau Brieske has the longest active streak at 15.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kevin Gausman has located his fastball up for a strike 76% (1,081/1,424) of the time since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has an ERA of 6.27 (51.2 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.58 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 66% (302/455) against Kevin Gausman on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has located his fastball up for a strike 75% (342/455) of the time this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Red Sox are just 58-198 (.227) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Red Sox are 25-19 (.568) after a road win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .465.
The Red Sox are just 3-138 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Red Sox are just 57-50 (.533) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Blue Jays are 40-34 (.541) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Blue Jays are just 17-73 (.189) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Blue Jays are 27-15 (.643) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Blue Jays are 34-28 (.548) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .426.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 503 strikeouts in 1,795 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox are batting .269 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have 871 strikeouts in 3,373 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox are batting .385 in hitter’s counts this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .352 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of just .656 (1,391 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Blue Jays are batting .350 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
The Blue Jays are batting .256 on the road since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 198 of 2,856 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 451 of 6,006 batters (7%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Blue Jays pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers had allowed a run just 24% of the time after an opposing score in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Toronto Blue Jays – No Injuries Reported
- Boston Red Sox – No Injuries Reported
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