- The Red Sox are -115 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Red Sox vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Red Sox / Cardinals TV Channel: NESN | ESPN+ | BSMW
The Boston Red Sox (-115) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-105) on Friday, May 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in St. Louis, MO.
This season, the Red Sox are 22-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 20-23 ATS.
Red Sox vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 4-1, 3.16 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson 2-2, 3.68 ERA
Red Sox vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +145 | O 8 -110 | -115 |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -175 | U 8 -110 | -105 |
Red Sox vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 32 games (+12.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 24 games (+12.50 Units / 52% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alec Burleson has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games (+20.20 Units / 144% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+10.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- Michael Siani has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+10.15 Units / 92% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 40 games (+9.95 Units / 17% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 31 games (+13.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 44 games (+7.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 21 away games (+6.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.15 Units / 76% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.10 Units / 19% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 20-24 against the Run Line (-8.65 Units / -14.2% ROI).
- 22-22 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.65 Units / -3.15% ROI
- 15-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.15 Units / -29.54% ROI
- 27-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.5 Units / 21.45% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 20-23 against the Run Line (-5.15 Units / -9.19% ROI).
- 18-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.25 Units / -19.17% ROI
- 18-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.6 Units / -15.92% ROI
- 23-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.5 Units / 7.46% ROI
Cardinals vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Matt Carpenter (STL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nolan Gorman (STL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Cardinals vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Vaughn Grissom (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Cardinals vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Cardinals vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Gibson (STL) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (63/380) against Brayan Bello since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (45/303) against Brayan Bello since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (130/214) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (164/272) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .158 (3-for-19) against Kyle Gibson on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best among in MLB; League Avg: .322 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .158 (3-for-19) against Kyle Gibson on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .318 — 95th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 59% (444/753) this season — lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 59% (444/753) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Red Sox are just 1-92 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Red Sox are just 45-60 (.429) after a loss since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Red Sox are just 3-158 (.019) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are just 38-69 (.355) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Cardinals are 28-12 (.700) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 17-28 (.378) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Cardinals are just 5-99 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Cardinals are 12-8 (.600) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have put just 30% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters have 135 strikeouts in 443 PA’s (30%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have 41 strikeouts in 121 PA’s (34%) against LHP over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .271 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .229.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cardinals are batting just .196 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Cardinals hitters are slugging just .300 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .387.
The Cardinals are batting just .204 with two outs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .229.
Cardinals hitters are slugging just .375 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have allowed 2.71 runs per game (57/21) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 2.82 (396.1 IP) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.93.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 2.21 (183.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 115 of 1,627 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dylan Carlson (St. Louis Cardinals): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Keynan Middleton (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Lars Nootbaar (St. Louis Cardinals): Ribs, 10-Day IL
- Drew Rom (St. Louis Cardinals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Sonny Gray (St. Louis Cardinals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Riley O’Brien (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Tommy Edman (St. Louis Cardinals): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Packy Naughton (St. Louis Cardinals): Elbow, Out
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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