- The Red Sox are -120 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Red Sox vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Red Sox / Cardinals TV Channel: NESN | BSMW
The Boston Red Sox (-120) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (+100) on Saturday, May 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in St. Louis, MO.
This season, the Red Sox are 22-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 21-23 ATS.
Red Sox vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford 2-2, 2.24 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Miles Mikolas 3-5, 6.24 ERA
Red Sox vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +140 | O 8 -110 | -120 |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -165 | U 8 -110 | +100 |
Red Sox vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 56.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 24 games (+12.50 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 33 games (+11.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.30 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alec Burleson has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 15 games (+26.80 Units / 179% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 41 games (+11.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 41 games (+10.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 41 games (+8.95 Units / 15% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 32 games (+12.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 45 games (+6.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.15 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.20 Units / 30% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 67% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.10 Units / 52% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.40 Units / 22% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 20-25 against the Run Line (-9.65 Units / -15.59% ROI).
- 22-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -5.15% ROI
- 16-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.15 Units / -26.84% ROI
- 27-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.4 Units / 18.78% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 21-23 against the Run Line (-4.15 Units / -7.17% ROI).
- 19-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.25 Units / -16.95% ROI
- 19-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.6 Units / -13.51% ROI
- 23-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.4 Units / 5% ROI
Cardinals vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Matt Carpenter (STL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Cardinals vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Dominic Smith (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Vaughn Grissom (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Cardinals vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -150 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
Cardinals vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kutter Crawford (BOS) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -140 |
| Miles Mikolas (STL) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 24% (16/66) against Kutter Crawford this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (13/49) against Kutter Crawford in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (189/409) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (13/49) against Kutter Crawford in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .312 (111-for-356) against Miles Mikolas when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — sixth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .283 (26-for-92) against Miles Mikolas with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .167 — first Percentile.
Miles Mikolas has walked 11 of 378 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .345 (38-for-110) against Miles Mikolas’ non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .216 — first Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Red Sox are just 38-69 (.355) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Red Sox are just 3-159 (.019) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are just 45-61 (.425) after a loss since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Red Sox are just 16-23 (.410) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Cardinals are just 17-28 (.378) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Cardinals are just 25-34 (.424) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.
The Cardinals are just 50-53 (.485) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Cardinals are 28-12 (.700) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters have 136 strikeouts in 452 PA’s (30%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .272 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .229.
Red Sox hitters have 41 strikeouts in 128 PA’s (32%) against LHP over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters are slugging just .310 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .387.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of just .593 (479 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .700.
The Cardinals are batting just .235 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Cardinals are batting just .200 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 118 of 1,668 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 2.59 (191.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.03.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 2.98 (404.1 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.
The average home run distance against the Red Sox pitchers since last season is 394.6 feet — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 398.6
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Cardinals pitchers have walked 116 of 1,820 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dylan Carlson (St. Louis Cardinals): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Keynan Middleton (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Lars Nootbaar (St. Louis Cardinals): Ribs, 10-Day IL
- Drew Rom (St. Louis Cardinals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Sonny Gray (St. Louis Cardinals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Riley O’Brien (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Tommy Edman (St. Louis Cardinals): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Packy Naughton (St. Louis Cardinals): Elbow, Out
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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