- The Red Sox are -110 favorites vs the Guardians
- Red Sox vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | NESN
The Boston Red Sox (-115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-105) on Tuesday, April 23, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Red Sox are 13-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 15-7 ATS.
Red Sox vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 3-1, 1.33 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 0-1, 3.60 ERA
Red Sox vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 -115 | -115 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -105 | -105 |
Red Sox vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 53.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+6.05 Units / 121% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.60 Units / 57% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.45 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+5.55 Units / 93% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.35 Units / 70% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.30 Units / 86% ROI)
- Tyler Freeman has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.50 Units / 45% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.53 Units / 24% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 72 games at home (+20.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 64 of their last 120 games (+6.20 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games (+5.72 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 62 games at home (+4.25 Units / 5% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 14-9 against the Run Line (+4.75 Units / 14.48% ROI).
- 13-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.45 Units / 9.11% ROI
- 10-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.05 Units / -12.06% ROI
- 12-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.05 Units / 4.15% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 15-7 against the Run Line (+7.7 Units / 26.15% ROI).
- 16-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.65 Units / 31.85% ROI
- 14-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.3 Units / 26.09% ROI
- 7-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.6 Units / -35.39% ROI
Guardians vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Guardians vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -140 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 64% (23/36) against Tanner Houck this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has thrown his slider 60% of the time (59/99) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has not walked any of the 50 batters that he has faced vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has walked 2 of 105 batters (2%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 98th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 37% (56/153) against Ben Lively on fastballs since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (26/78) against Ben Lively on inside fastballs since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 30% (47/157) against Ben Lively since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% (54/148) against Ben Lively on fastballs in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 98th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Red Sox are just 1-81 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are just 40-54 (.426) after a loss since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.
The Red Sox are just 35-65 (.350) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Red Sox are just 3-147 (.020) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Guardians are 19-62 (.235) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Guardians are 8-76 (.095) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Guardians are 35-119 (.227) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .132.
The Guardians are 24-126 (.160) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .094.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 74 strikeouts in 244 PA’s (30%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .802 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .558.
Red Sox hitters have put just 30% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of just .351 (131 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .655.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,711 strikeouts in 9,406 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Guardians are batting .304 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Guardians hitters have just 2,433 strikeouts in 13,114 PA’s (19%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 59 of 871 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 114 of 1,646 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 9 of 211 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed the 28th hardest ball in play hit (119.2 MPH) in the 2023 season (; League Avg: 117.2).
Guardians vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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