- The Guardians are -160 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | NESN | MLBN
The Boston Red Sox (+115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-135) on Thursday, April 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Red Sox are 14-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 16-8 ATS.
Red Sox vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Chase Anderson 0-0, 2.77 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie 2-2, 4.91 ERA
Red Sox vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 -115 | +115 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 -105 | -135 |
Red Sox vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 55.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.53 Units / 24% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 71 games at home (+19.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 64 of their last 120 games (+6.20 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.72 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 62 games at home (+4.25 Units / 5% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 15-10 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 14-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 10-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 13-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 16-8 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 17-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 14-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 8-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Guardians vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (BOS) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Guardians vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chase Anderson has a first-pitch strike rate of 74% (37/50) this season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — 96th Percentile.
Chase Anderson has a strike rate of 70% (40/57) in two strike counts this season — tied for 9th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 92nd Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 22% (5/23) against Chase Anderson this season — 6th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — fourth Percentile.
Chase Anderson has struck out just 11% (3/27) of right-handed batters he faced this season — tied for 7th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 23% — ninth Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Triston McKenzie has walked 15 of 83 batters (18%) this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has not struck out any hitters in 24 PA’s in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has walked 11 of 53 batters (21%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has allowed an OBP of .415 (41 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 0 Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Red Sox are 35-38 (.479) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Red Sox are just 3-148 (.020) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox are just 40-52 (.435) after a home loss since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Red Sox are just 19-31 (.380) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Guardians are 24-127 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Guardians are 8-77 (.094) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Guardians are just 9-16 (.360) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 35-120 (.226) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .132.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters are slugging .826 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .561.
Red Sox hitters have 74 strikeouts in 244 PA’s (30%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .332 (3,369 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
The Red Sox are batting .294 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have put 46% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have just 2,446 strikeouts in 13,181 PA’s (19%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 1.54 (134.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 65 of 938 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.85 (834.1 IP) on the road since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.38.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 10 of 228 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .175 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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