- The Pirates are -120 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Red Sox / Pirates TV Channel: NESN | SNPT
The Boston Red Sox (+100) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) on Saturday, April 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Red Sox are 11-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 12-8 ATS.
Red Sox vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Red Sox vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -210 | O 8 -115 | +100 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +160 | U 8 -105 | -120 |
Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- Kutter Crawford has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 games (+8.70 Units / 48% ROI)
- Kutter Crawford has hit the Strikeouts Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.60 Units / 62% ROI)
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.35 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Earned Runs Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+7.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+7.30 Units / 104% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.15 Units / 80% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+6.50 Units / 36% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.53 Units / 24% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 12-9 against the Run Line (+2.75 Units / 9.47% ROI).
- 11-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.1 Units / 0.4% ROI
- 10-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.9 Units / -3.89% ROI
- 10-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.95 Units / -4.12% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 12-8 against the Run Line (+2.1 Units / 7.36% ROI).
- 11-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.85 Units / 13.1% ROI
- 12-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.25 Units / 14.84% ROI
- 8-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.25 Units / -23.76% ROI
Pirates vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Pirates vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Pirates vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Pirates vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .045 (2-for-44) against Kutter Crawford this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 100th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of just .149 (11 Total Bases / 74 ABs) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .379 — 98th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed an OPS of just .366 (83 PA’s) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .677 — 98th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of just .149 (11 Total Bases / 74 ABs) this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: .369 — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller allowed a batting average of .400 vs right-handed batters (worst)– first Percentile and just .130 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (eighth best among qualified SPs)– 86th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed a .560 SLG vs right-handed batters (seventh worst)– 11th Percentile and just .217 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (eighth best among qualified SPs)– 86th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .353 (12-for-34) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .224 — ninth Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .333 (14-for-42) against Mitch Keller this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — sixth Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Red Sox are just 1-81 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are just 35-65 (.350) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Red Sox are just 40-52 (.435) after a home loss since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Red Sox are just 19-31 (.380) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Pirates are just 12-19 (.387) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are 42-8 (.840) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
The Pirates are just 108-26 (.806) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .867.
The Pirates are just 142-166 (.461) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters are slugging .768 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .556.
The Red Sox are batting .271 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of just .500 (227 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .683.
Red Sox hitters have 63 strikeouts in 213 PA’s (30%) against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Pirates hitters have 151 strikeouts in 433 PA’s (35%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .178 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Pirates are batting just .233 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have allowed 2.27 runs per game (25/11) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.37.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 1.45 (99.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.07.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 9 of 193 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 114 of 1,628 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers are throwing just 3.60 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,237 of 13,257 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 55 of 756 batters (7%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 53% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Pirates vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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