- The Red Sox are -125 favorites vs the Reds
- Red Sox vs Reds Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Reds TV Channel: NESN | BSOH
The Boston Red Sox (-125) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+105) on Saturday, June 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Red Sox are 40-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 42-33 ATS.
Red Sox vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 4-4, 3.88 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Frankie Montas 3-5, 4.65 ERA
Red Sox vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +130 | O 9.5 -105 | -125 |
| Reds | +1.5 -160 | U 9.5 -115 | +105 |
Red Sox vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+14.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- David Hamilton has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+12.60 Units / 158% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+11.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 away games (+9.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- David Hamilton has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.00 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 42 games (+21.05 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 24 games (+20.60 Units / 86% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 37 games (+15.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+11.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+11.00 Units / 46% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 33 games (+7.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 35 away games (+7.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games (+6.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 away games (+6.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 76 games (+6.15 Units / 6% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 59 games (+16.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 23 games at home (+12.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+11.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 57 games (+9.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games (+8.35 Units / 29% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 36-40 against the Run Line (-10.2 Units / -9.89% ROI).
- 40-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 1.04% ROI
- 34-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.2 Units / -8.62% ROI
- 38-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.95 Units / 1.13% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 42-33 against the Run Line (+5.65 Units / 5.62% ROI).
- 36-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -3.33% ROI
- 31-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.65 Units / -17.69% ROI
- 41-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.65 Units / 8.07% ROI
Reds vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Reds vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Reds vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Reds vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (BOS) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
| Frankie Montas (CIN) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -160 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .770 (211 Total Bases / 274 ABs) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: .574 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .179 (485 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .129 (15-for-116) against Nick Pivetta in late innings since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .126 (57-for-454) against Nick Pivetta with two-strikes since last season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: .172 — 95th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Frankie Montas has walked 15 of 111 batters (14%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Frankie Montas has allowed a slugging percentage of .704 (19 Total Bases / 27 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: .391 — third Percentile.
Frankie Montas has walked 7 of 27 left-handed batters (26%) this month (3 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Frankie Montas has a strikeout rate of just 15% (17 SO in 111 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: 24% — eighth Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Red Sox are just 2-105 (.019) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Red Sox are just 24-102 (.190) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Red Sox are just 2-25 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
The Red Sox are just 27-37 (.422) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Reds are just 53-55 (.491) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .636.
The Reds are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are 36-15 (.706) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Reds are just 64-44 (.593) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 235 strikeouts in 821 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .271 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of 1.208 (548 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 1.046.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .130 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Reds are batting just .112 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
The Reds are batting just .166 on breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Reds hitters are slugging just .150 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 201 of 2,826 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.24 (330.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 44 of 680 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The average home run distance against the Reds pitchers this season is 386.9 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 396.8
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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