- The Yankees are -140 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Yankees Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Red Sox / Yankees TV Channel: NESN | YES | MLBN
The Boston Red Sox (+120) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-140) on Friday, July 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in New York City, NY.
This season, the Red Sox are 47-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 48-41 ATS.
Red Sox vs Yankees Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 7-6, 2.67 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes 4-7, 3.53 ERA
Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -175 | O 8 -105 | +120 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +145 | U 8 -115 | -140 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+16.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 37 games (+11.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.70 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Aaron Judge has hit the Home Runs Over in 22 of his last 45 games (+23.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Over in 37 of his last 47 games (+22.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 47 games (+18.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+17.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 43 games (+13.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 away games (+12.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 40 away games (+9.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 86 games (+6.35 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 86 games (+5.75 Units / 6% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games (+15.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 32 games (+14.90 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 55 games (+10.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.25 Units / 65% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 40-46 against the Run Line (-11.2 Units / -9.86% ROI).
- 47-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 3.8% ROI
- 42-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -1.43% ROI
- 40-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -6 Units / -6.31% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 48-41 against the Run Line (+12.15 Units / 11.54% ROI).
- 54-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.6 Units / 2.76% ROI
- 47-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 2.8% ROI
- 40-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.75 Units / -12% ROI
Yankees vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -275 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Anthony Volpe (NYY) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| DJ LeMahieu (NYY) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Yankees vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -150 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nestor Cortes (NYY) | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -150 |
| Tanner Houck (BOS) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -155 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Houck has walked 3 of 153 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .226 (33 Total Bases / 146 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .386 — 100th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed an OPS of just .522 (235 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .704 — 97th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has thrown off-speed pitches 76% of the time (654/861) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .143 (5-for-35) against Nestor Cortes on low fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .259 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (96/304) against Nestor Cortes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 33% (83/252) against Nestor Cortes this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (61/201) against Nestor Cortes in two-strike counts since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are just 4-173 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are just 2-107 (.018) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are 29-3 (.906) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .755.
The Red Sox are 42-9 (.824) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees are 10-13 (.435) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Yankees are 24-20 (.545) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Yankees are 102-31 (.767) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Yankees are 59-18 (.766) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .620.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 266 strikeouts in 927 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .430 against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .244 on pitches out of the zone since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Red Sox are batting .270 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 104 walks in 920 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Yankees are batting just .219 with two outs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Yankees hitters are slugging .428 against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Yankees hitters are slugging .686 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .562.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 221 of 3,223 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 48 of 773 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Red Sox have allowed 3.58 runs per game (154/43) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.38.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .199 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
The Yankees have won 47% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 26% against Yankees pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have won 54% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony Volpe (New York Yankees): Illness, Day-To-Day
- Lou Trivino (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Scott Effross (New York Yankees): Back, 60-Day IL
- Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- McKinley Moore (New York Yankees): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Weber (New York Yankees): Forearm, Out
- DJ LeMahieu (New York Yankees): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Oscar Gonzalez (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
- Jorbit Vivas (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
- Tommy Kahnle (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Oswald Peraza (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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