- The Astros are -175 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Astros Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Reds / Astros TV Channel: FDOH | SCHN
The Cincinnati Reds (+145) visit Daikin Park to take on the Houston Astros (-175) on Friday, May 9, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX, TX.
This season, the Reds are 19-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 20-16 ATS.
Reds vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Martinez 1-3, 4.23 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown 5-1, 1.66 ERA
Reds vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -160 | O 7.5 -118 | +145 |
| Astros | -1.5 +135 | U 7.5 -102 | -175 |
Reds vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s MLB game with 60.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Trevino has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+10.40 Units / 149% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+8.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Gavin Lux has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+8.50 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Hunter Brown has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Hunter Brown has hit the Earned Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+15.95 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- Hunter Brown has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.10 Units / 34% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 28 games (+5.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 36 games (+4.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 away games (+3.35 Units / 18% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 28 games (+10.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games (+7.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.60 Units / 44% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 22-17 against the Run Line (+0.55 Units / 1% ROI).
- 19-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -4.27% ROI
- 17-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.1 Units / -14.27% ROI
- 21-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.15 Units / 4.99% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 20-16 against the Run Line (+5.7 Units / 12.3% ROI).
- 18-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -5 Units / -10.72% ROI
- 16-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -9.29% ROI
- 18-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.2 Units / 0.5% ROI
Astros vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Zach Dezenzo (HOU) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Astros vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Astros vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Zach Dezenzo (HOU) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Isaac Paredes (HOU) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Astros vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown (HOU) | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +115 |
| Nick Martinez (CIN) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .478 (11-for-23) against Nick Martinez’s elevated fastball this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .214 — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 24% (13/55) against Nick Martinez this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — fifth Percentile.
Nick Martinez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.8 MPH against his fastballs since the 2023 season (337 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 90.8
Opponents had a groundball rate of 74% (32/43) against Nick Martinez’s curve and slider in 2023 — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Brown has allowed an OBP of just .159 (63 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 98th Percentile.
Hunter Brown allowed a batting average of .333 vs right-handed batters (ninth worst)– 12th Percentile and just .150 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (ninth best among qualified SPs)– 84th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (82/288) against Hunter Brown on fastballs since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .102 (6-for-59) against Hunter Brown when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among among AL Starters; League Avg: .224 — 100th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 4-79 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .097.
The Reds are just 6-18 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 6-76 (.073) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .140.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are just 1-73 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Astros are just 2-7 (.222) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Reds (16th best runs scored) today.
The Astros are 157-16 (.908) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .860.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds batted just .116 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Reds hitters are slugging just .157 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
Reds hitters slugged just .151 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Reds are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters averaged just 3.66 pitches per plate appearance in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have put 46% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have an OBP of .431 (160 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
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