- The Braves are -150 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Braves Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Reds / Braves TV Channel: FDOH | FDSO | FDSE | MLBN
The Cincinnati Reds (+125) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-150) on Monday, May 5, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Reds are 18-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 16-17 ATS.
Reds vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Brady Singer 4-1, 3.24 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: AJ Smith-Shawver 1-2, 4.27 ERA
Reds vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -175 | O 8.5 -105 | +125 |
| Braves | -1.5 +145 | U 8.5 -115 | -150 |
Reds vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s MLB game with 56.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Fraley has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+16.40 Units / 164% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 away games (+10.65 Units / 57% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+10.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Gavin Lux has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.80 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Sean Murphy has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+13.10 Units / 146% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+7.10 Units / 35% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games (+6.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 away games (+5.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 32 games (+3.75 Units / 8% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+6.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 84% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 12 games at home (+4.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 11 games (+3.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.45 Units / 23% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 19-16 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -1.22% ROI).
- 18-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 16-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.7 Units / -6.67% ROI
- 18-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.25 Units / 0.45% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 16-17 against the Run Line (-1.6 Units / -3.98% ROI).
- 15-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.1 Units / -19.2% ROI
- 15-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.45 Units / -2.74% ROI
- 15-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.35 Units / -2.6% ROI
Braves vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Braves vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Noelvi Marte (CIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alex Verdugo (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Braves vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Noelvi Marte (CIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Gavin Lux (CIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Braves vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brady Singer (CIN) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +115 |
| AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brady Singer threw his slider 58% of the time (470/813) with two-strikes in the 2024 season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Brady Singer has thrown inside pitches 55% of the time (191/347) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Brady Singer has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (75/159) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.
Brady Singer has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (75/159) with two-strikes this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (20/55) against AJ Smith-Shawver this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
AJ Smith-Shawver had a strike rate of 78% (46/59) in his last start — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 13% (2/15) against AJ Smith-Shawver in his last start — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of 50% (12/24) against AJ Smith-Shawver in his last start — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 0-14 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .039.
The Reds are just 6-16 (.273) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 24-34 (.414) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Braves are 5-12 (.294) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Braves are 4-14 (.222) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .082.
The Braves are just 8-3 (.727) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Braves are just 0-16 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .039.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .158 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Reds are batting just .120 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
The Reds are batting just .225 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Reds batted just .116 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .845 (6,249 PA’s) in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .870 (1,425 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Braves hitters slugged .509 at home in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 46% of the time since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
More MLB Reading:
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