- The Reds are -105 favorites vs the Brewers
- Reds vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Reds / Brewers TV Channel: FDOH | FDWI | MLBN
The Cincinnati Reds (+110) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-130) on Friday, April 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Reds are 2-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 1-6 ATS.
Reds vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Martinez 0-1, 6.01 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Civale 0-1, 15.02 ERA
Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -200 | O 8.5 -120 | +110 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +165 | U 8.5 +100 | -130 |
Reds vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+13.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+11.60 Units / 193% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+10.60 Units / 80% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eric Haase has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+25.00 Units / 417% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 games (+7.90 Units / 76% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Eric Haase has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 86 of their last 147 games (+17.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 82 of their last 144 games (+11.95 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 146 games (+9.90 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 away games (+8.30 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 56 away games (+5.45 Units / 9% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 81 of their last 158 games (+8.15 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 58 games (+7.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 88 of their last 156 games (+7.30 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 72 games at home (+5.50 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 72 games at home (+3.95 Units / 4% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 3-4 against the Run Line (-2.35 Units / -23.04% ROI).
- 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.4 Units / -44.44% ROI
- 3-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
- 4-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 1-6 against the Run Line (-6.05 Units / -69.14% ROI).
- 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -15.29% ROI
- 3-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -17.76% ROI
- 4-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.65 Units / 8.33% ROI
Brewers vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Brewers vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Brewers vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Alexander (MIL) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
| Nick Martinez (CIN) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Martinez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.3 MPH against his fastballs since the 2023 season (291 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: 90.8
Nick Martinez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.6 MPH since the 2023 season (725 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: 89.0
Hitters have swung at 20% of Nick Martinez’s breaking pitches (5/25) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 74% (32/43) against Nick Martinez’s curve and slider in 2023 — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Civale had a strike rate of just 57% when ahead in the count (fifth lowest)– eighth Percentile and 73% when behind in the count last season (fifth highest among qualified SPs)– 92nd Percentile.
Aaron Civale struck out just 18% (63/356) of right-handed batters he faced in the 2024 season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 10th Percentile.
The average home run distance against Aaron Civale since the 2023 season is 383.9 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: 398.9
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 36% (174/482) against Aaron Civale in the 2024 season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 10th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are just 13-27 (.325) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 22-33 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Reds are just 61-64 (.488) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Brewers (sixth best runs scored) today.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 48-32 (.600) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Reds (14th best runs allowed) today.
The Brewers are 27-16 (.628) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers were 30-12 (.714) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Brewers are 30-22 (.577) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are hitless in 40 AB’s on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .146.
Reds hitters are slugging .000 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .199.
The Reds are batting just .113 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Reds hitters slugged just .151 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters had 129 extra-base hits out of 494 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters came to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,726 of their 6,170 plate appearances (28%) in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers hitters had a swing rate of just 45% in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .111 (54 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Reds pitchers have walked 1 of 54 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% against Brewers pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 29% against Brewers pitchers over the last 14 days of the regular season (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 7.81 (53.0 IP) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Brewers have allowed 8.17 runs per game (49/6) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.23.
More MLB Reading:
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