- The Reds are -105 favorites vs the Guardians
- Reds vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Reds / Guardians TV Channel: FDOH | GDTV
The Cincinnati Reds (-105) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-115) on Tuesday, June 10, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH, OH.
This season, the Reds are 34-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 33-32 ATS.
Reds vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Andrew Abbott 5-1, 2.18 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Slade Cecconi 1-2, 4.95 ERA
Reds vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +155 | O 8 -105 | -105 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -115 | -115 |
Reds vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+15.30 Units / 219% ROI)
- Gavin Lux has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- Gavin Lux has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.60 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+13.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+10.80 Units / 180% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+10.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+8.55 Units / 39% ROI)
- Angel Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 games (+7.90 Units / 48% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 44 games (+12.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 64 games (+6.75 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 57 games (+4.75 Units / 7% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+8.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 56 games (+6.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+6.14 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 19 games (+1.85 Units / 7% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 37-29 against the Run Line (+2.4 Units / 2.58% ROI).
- 34-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.65 Units / -3.28% ROI
- 27-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.4 Units / -21.02% ROI
- 39-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.35 Units / 12.61% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 33-32 against the Run Line (-4.25 Units / -4.74% ROI).
- 34-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.6 Units / 4.76% ROI
- 29-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.15 Units / -8.74% ROI
- 33-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.15 Units / 1.58% ROI
Guardians vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -550 |
| Will Benson (CIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Guardians vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +210 |
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Guardians vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Slade Cecconi (ARI) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +115 |
| Andrew Abbott (CIN) | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 22% (10/46) against Andrew Abbott on low breaking pitches in 2023 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Andrew Abbott has allowed a SLG of just .173 on non-fastballs down this season — tied for ninth best among starting pitchers with at least 25 total IP– 93rd Percentile. He allowed a SLG of .444 on low non-fastballs last season — tied for sixth worst among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP– fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (35/128) against Andrew Abbott’s low breaking balls since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 20% (21/103) against Andrew Abbott’s curve and slider in 2023 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Slade Cecconi has an ERA of 6.29 (97.1 IP)since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: 3.92 — first Percentile.
Slade Cecconi has allowed a slugging percentage of .533 (210 Total Bases / 394 ABs) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: .401 — 0 Percentile.
Slade Cecconi has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to May 17th — the longest active streak is 5.
Slade Cecconi has thrown 56% of his pitches in the strike zone (915/1,620) since last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 98th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Reds are just 15-29 (.341) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 0-27 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .043.
The Reds are just 6-86 (.065) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .141.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Guardians are 15-0 (.938) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Guardians are 98-3 (.970) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Guardians were just 3-61 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Guardians are 27-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .904.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .129 on pitches out of the zone since the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Reds hitters slugged just .151 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Reds are batting just .223 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Reds batted just .226 against LHP in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters struck out just 791 times in 4,186 PA’s (19%) against RHP in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have struck out in 30% of it’s PA’s in righty-righty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Guardians are batting just .297 in hitter’s counts since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Guardians pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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