- The Reds are -115 favorites vs the Guardians
- Reds vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Reds / Guardians TV Channel: FDOH | GDTV
The Cincinnati Reds (-120) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+100) on Wednesday, June 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Reds are 35-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 34-32 ATS.
Reds vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 4-4, 3.24 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen 3-4, 4.42 ERA
Reds vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +140 | O 8.5 +100 | -120 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -170 | U 8.5 -120 | +100 |
Reds vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+14.30 Units / 179% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.20 Units / 72% ROI)
- Nick Lodolo has hit the Earned Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- Nick Lodolo has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.95 Units / 63% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+15.75 Units / 58% ROI)
- Bo Naylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+10.40 Units / 260% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+10.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+9.20 Units / 27% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 45 games (+13.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games (+6.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 58 games (+5.75 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 65 games (+5.75 Units / 6% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games at home (+9.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+9.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+7.19 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 57 games (+5.65 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.85 Units / 10% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 37-30 against the Run Line (+1.4 Units / 1.49% ROI).
- 35-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.65 Units / -2.01% ROI
- 27-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.5 Units / -22.19% ROI
- 40-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.35 Units / 13.75% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 34-32 against the Run Line (-3.25 Units / -3.55% ROI).
- 34-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 3.26% ROI
- 29-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.25 Units / -10.15% ROI
- 34-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.15 Units / 2.92% ROI
Guardians vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Guardians vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Trevino (CIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Guardians vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Guardians vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Allen (CLE) | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +110 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .462 (12-for-26) against Nick Lodolo’s low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .260 — first Percentile.
Nick Lodolo located 44% of his pitches inside (251/576) with two-strikes in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 98th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has allowed a slugging percentage of .538 (14 Total Bases / 26 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .378 — 16th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has walked 4% of batters this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 90th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
11 of Logan Allen’s 22 breaking pitch strikeouts (50%) have been backdoor this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Logan Allen had a strike rate of just 53% (47/88) in his last start — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .273 (30-for-110) against Logan Allen with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: .169 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (15/118) against Logan Allen with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Reds are just 0-25 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .136.
The Reds are just 15-29 (.341) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 4-90 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .098.
The Reds were just 8-18 (.308) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .498.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Guardians are 98-3 (.970) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Guardians are 15-0 (.938) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Guardians were 77-2 (.975) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Guardians are 104-2 (.981) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .901.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .129 on pitches out of the zone since the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
The Reds batted just .116 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Reds hitters slugged just .151 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .634 (2,639 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .691.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .295 in hitter’s counts since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have a swing rate of 54% in righty-righty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Guardians hitters struck out just 791 times in 4,186 PA’s (19%) against RHP in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers in 2023 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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