- The Mets are -200 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Reds / Mets TV Channel: SNY | BSOH | MLBN
The Cincinnati Reds (+165) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-200) on Sunday, September 8, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Reds are 68-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 73-69 ATS.
Reds vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Julian Aguiar 1-0, 6.49 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 10-6, 3.84 ERA
Reds vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -120 | O 8 -115 | +165 |
| Mets | -1.5 +100 | U 8 -105 | -200 |
Reds vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 63.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 away games (+27.50 Units / 212% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 32 games (+16.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 games (+12.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 50 games (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 49 games (+21.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 45 games (+20.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 48 games (+13.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+13.00 Units / 41% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 71 of their last 125 games (+11.35 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 128 games (+8.55 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 52 games (+8.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 43 away games (+4.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.35 Units / 13% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 83 games (+19.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 51 of their last 94 games (+15.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 84 games (+14.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+12.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+11.95 Units / 28% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 79-64 against the Run Line (+7.5 Units / 3.97% ROI).
- 68-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.45 Units / -5.56% ROI
- 67-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.6 Units / -5.45% ROI
- 68-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.05 Units / -3.85% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 73-69 against the Run Line (+1.15 Units / 0.63% ROI).
- 78-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.35 Units / 3.56% ROI
- 70-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.95 Units / -1.89% ROI
- 66-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -10 Units / -6.56% ROI
Mets vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Mets vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ty France (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Mets vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ty France (CIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Julian Aguiar has limited playing time.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Severino has allowed a slugging percentage of .588 (50 Total Bases / 85 ABs) on low fastballs this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .393 — sixth Percentile.
Luis Severino has walked 28 of 322 right-handed batters (9%) this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 12th Percentile.
Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (279/670) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 98th Percentile.
Luis Severino has allowed a slugging percentage of just .312 (69 Total Bases / 221 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — 84th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Reds are just 34-37 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Reds are just 12-24 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 4-13 (.235) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 6-15 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Mets are just 57-13 (.814) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Mets are just 60-6 (.909) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .946.
The Mets are just 53-14 (.791) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Mets are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .147 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
Reds hitters have 70 extra-base hits out of 156 total hits (45%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Reds are batting just .114 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
The Reds are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging .443 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .768 (1,414 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
The Mets have answered-back in just 20% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Mets hitters have 131 extra-base hits out of 326 total hits (40%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The longest HR allowed by the Reds pitchers this season traveled 480.0 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 461.2
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .295 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have walked 113 of 1,270 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Mets pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have walked 526 of 5,374 batters (10%) this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
- Cincinnati Reds – No Injuries Reported
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