- The Reds are + favorites vs the Nationals
- Reds vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Reds / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | BSOH
The Cincinnati Reds () visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals () on Saturday, July 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Reds are 47-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 55-43 ATS.
Reds vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 8-3, 3.38 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 6-8, 3.99 ERA
Reds vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Reds | O | ||
Nationals | U |
Reds vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 47 games (+18.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+17.00 Units / 243% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.25 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jake Fraley has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.45 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+18.30 Units / 183% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+11.60 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+11.50 Units / 88% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 80 games (+12.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 82 games (+10.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 43 away games (+9.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 83 games (+8.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 48 games (+7.80 Units / 14% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 90 games (+10.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 90 games (+9.65 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+6.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games at home (+6.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.95 Units / 23% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 55-43 against the Run Line (+8.35 Units / 6.54% ROI).
- 47-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.45 Units / -4.6% ROI
- 44-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.85 Units / -10.94% ROI
- 50-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 1.26% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 55-43 against the Run Line (+5.73 Units / 4.49% ROI).
- 45-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.15 Units / 6.95% ROI
- 46-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.6 Units / -5.22% ROI
- 47-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.12 Units / -3.8% ROI
Nationals vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
Rece Hinds (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Nationals vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Rece Hinds (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Nationals vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
Rece Hinds (CIN) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Nationals vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Patrick Corbin (WAS) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
Frankie Montas (CIN) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OBP of .391 (358 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 167 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OPS of 1.801 (17 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .747 — first Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OPS of just .330 (82 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .701 — 99th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (168/385) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (89/275) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a first-pitch strike rate of just 55% (239/436) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 32% (67/208) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .450 (27-for-60) against MacKenzie Gore when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .324 — first Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Reds are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 28-31 (.475) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Reds are just 9-19 (.321) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 2-11 (.154) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .578.
The Nationals are just 63-106 (.373) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .509.
The Nationals are just 29-49 (.372) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 81-126 (.391) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .109 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Reds hitters are slugging just .146 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Reds hitters are slugging .958 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .567.
Reds hitters are slugging .555 against RHP this month (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 39% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.78 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters have 89 extra-base hits out of 292 total hits (just 30%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Nationals are just 5-17 (.227) against the run line (-41.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .443.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,533 of 16,199 batters (10%) since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
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