- The Reds are + favorites vs the Nationals
- Reds vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Reds / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | BSOH
The Cincinnati Reds () visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals () on Saturday, July 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Reds are 47-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 55-43 ATS.
Reds vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 8-3, 3.38 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 6-8, 3.99 ERA
Reds vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | O | ||
| Nationals | U |
Reds vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Reds vs Nationals and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 47 games (+18.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+17.00 Units / 243% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.25 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jake Fraley has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.45 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+18.30 Units / 183% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+11.60 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+11.50 Units / 88% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 80 games (+12.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 82 games (+10.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 43 away games (+9.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 83 games (+8.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 48 games (+7.80 Units / 14% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 90 games (+10.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 90 games (+9.65 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+6.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games at home (+6.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.95 Units / 23% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 55-43 against the Run Line (+8.35 Units / 6.54% ROI).
- 47-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.45 Units / -4.6% ROI
- 44-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.85 Units / -10.94% ROI
- 50-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 1.26% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 55-43 against the Run Line (+5.73 Units / 4.49% ROI).
- 45-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.15 Units / 6.95% ROI
- 46-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.6 Units / -5.22% ROI
- 47-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.12 Units / -3.8% ROI
Nationals vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Rece Hinds (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Nationals vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Rece Hinds (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Nationals vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Rece Hinds (CIN) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Nationals vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin (WAS) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
| Frankie Montas (CIN) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OBP of .391 (358 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 167 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OPS of 1.801 (17 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .747 — first Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OPS of just .330 (82 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .701 — 99th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (168/385) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (89/275) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a first-pitch strike rate of just 55% (239/436) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 32% (67/208) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .450 (27-for-60) against MacKenzie Gore when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .324 — first Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Reds are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 28-31 (.475) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Reds are just 9-19 (.321) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 2-11 (.154) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .578.
The Nationals are just 63-106 (.373) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .509.
The Nationals are just 29-49 (.372) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 81-126 (.391) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .109 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Reds hitters are slugging just .146 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Reds hitters are slugging .958 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .567.
Reds hitters are slugging .555 against RHP this month (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 39% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.78 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters have 89 extra-base hits out of 292 total hits (just 30%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Nationals are just 5-17 (.227) against the run line (-41.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .443.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,533 of 16,199 batters (10%) since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
Bet now on Reds vs Nationals and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
