- The Pirates are -155 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Pirates Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Reds / Pirates TV Channel: BSOH | SNPT
The Cincinnati Reds (+130) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-155) on Thursday, August 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Reds are 62-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 71-55 ATS.
Reds vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 9-5, 4.63 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 7-2, 2.30 ERA
Reds vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -175 | O 7.5 -120 | +130 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +145 | U 7.5 +100 | -155 |
Reds vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 56.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 40 games (+33.80 Units / 85% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 43 games (+13.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+12.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 37 games (+11.25 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Joey Bart has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 17 games (+23.90 Units / 141% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+13.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 42 games (+10.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+10.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 44 games (+9.60 Units / 16% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 63 of their last 109 games (+12.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 37 away games (+8.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 112 games (+7.10 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 36 games (+6.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.95 Units / 28% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 87 games (+18.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 64 games (+7.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 49 games (+7.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 44 games at home (+5.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 82 games (+4.20 Units / 4% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 71-56 against the Run Line (+8.65 Units / 5.14% ROI).
- 62-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.5 Units / -3.61% ROI
- 59-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -10 Units / -7.14% ROI
- 62-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -2.4% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 71-55 against the Run Line (+13.46 Units / 8.24% ROI).
- 59-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.9 Units / -6.15% ROI
- 59-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.35 Units / -7.42% ROI
- 63-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.22 Units / -0.89% ROI
Pirates vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -1400 |
Pirates vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Pirates vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Connor Joe (PIT) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Pirates vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo (CIN) | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 -110 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OBP of .401 (411 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 180 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has a strike rate of just 59% (783/1,323) in two strike counts since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 180 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has a strike rate of just 58% (318/546) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (240/546) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paul Skenes has a strikeout rate of 39% (39 SO in 101 PAs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has a first-pitch strike rate of just 51% (37/72) this month (3 games) — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — third Percentile.
Paul Skenes has thrown fastballs 68% of the time (483/706) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 99th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has allowed a slugging percentage of just .299 (55 Total Bases / 184 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .409 — 93rd Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds are just 32-35 (.478) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Reds are 14-24 (.368) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Reds are just 3-47 (.060) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Reds are just 3-11 (.214) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 6-35 (.146) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Pirates are just 17-29 (.370) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 49-5 (.907) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .946.
The Pirates are just 13-19 (.406) after a home win this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .519.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .112 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
The Reds are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Reds hitters are slugging just .145 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
Reds hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .154 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .496 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .579.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .657 (3,471 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .296 (3,471 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .293 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .290 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Pirates pitchers this month (18 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Pirates pitchers over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .242 against Pirates pitchers with runners on base this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,562 of 17,275 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Bryan Reynolds (Pittsburgh Pirates): Back, Day-To-Day
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Bailey Falter (Pittsburgh Pirates): Triceps, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Borucki (Pittsburgh Pirates): Wrist, 60-Day IL
- Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Nick Martini (Cincinnati Reds): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Carson Spiers (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 60-Day IL
- Tejay Antone (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Luke Maile (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 10-Day IL
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Day-To-Day
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Brent Suter (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 7-Day IL
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