- The Reds are -118 favorites vs the Pirates
- Reds vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Reds / Pirates TV Channel: FDOH | FS1 | SNPT
The Cincinnati Reds (-118) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-102) on Monday, May 19, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Reds are 24-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 18-29 ATS.
Reds vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 3-4, 3.44 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 1-5, 4.16 ERA
Reds vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +145 | O 8 -110 | -118 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -180 | U 8 -110 | -102 |
Reds vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Monday‘s MLB game with 53.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Will Benson has hit the Home Runs Over in his last 4 games (+16.70 Units / 418% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+8.25 Units / 206% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.75 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jared Triolo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+17.00 Units / 243% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.60 Units / 28% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 25 games (+12.10 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games (+5.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 38 games (+3.90 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.45 Units / 21% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 46 games (+12.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+10.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.64 Units / 28% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 27-21 against the Run Line (+0.85 Units / 1.26% ROI).
- 24-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -4.95% ROI
- 18-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.6 Units / -25.98% ROI
- 29-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.05 Units / 17% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 18-29 against the Run Line (-16.25 Units / -27.29% ROI).
- 15-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.15 Units / -28.86% ROI
- 17-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.45 Units / -24.15% ROI
- 27-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.4 Units / 16.2% ROI
Pirates vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Will Benson (CIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Alexander Canario (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Pirates vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Lux (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Pirates vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Gavin Lux (CIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
| Nick Lodolo (CIN) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -118 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .500 (11-for-22) against Nick Lodolo on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .269 — first Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has walked 4% of batters this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 93rd Percentile.
31% of Nick Lodolo’s strikeouts are in the zone this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .174 (65-for-373) against Nick Lodolo on the road since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 99th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller allowed an OPS of .927 (274 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .671 — first Percentile.
Opponents batted .314 (77-for-245) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller allowed a slugging percentage of .563 (138 Total Bases / 245 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed a SLG of just .224 vs right-handed batters (third best)– 97th Percentile but .479 vs left-handed batters this season (10th worst among qualified SPs)– 16th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds are just 4-83 (.046) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .097.
The Reds are just 0-19 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .043.
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 0-19 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .126.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 7-60 (.104) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Pirates are just 11-40 (.216) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Pirates are just 6-19 (.240) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .154 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
The Reds batted just .116 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Reds hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.
The Reds are batting just .223 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .321 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .677 (9,910 PA’s) against RHP since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .281 against RHP this month (16 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .372 against RHP since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have won only 5% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 53% of the time since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Pirates have won just 9% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
More MLB Reading:
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