- The Reds are -125 favorites vs the Pirates
- Reds vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Reds / Pirates TV Channel: FDOH | SNPT
The Cincinnati Reds (-130) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) on Tuesday, May 20, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Reds are 25-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 18-30 ATS.
Reds vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Martinez 2-4, 3.71 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 2-3, 4.00 ERA
Reds vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +125 | O 8 -110 | -130 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -150 | U 8 -110 | +110 |
Reds vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 54.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt McLain has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+7.90 Units / 88% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+5.45 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 7 games (+9.00 Units / 129% ROI)
- Alexander Canario has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 75% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 26 games (+13.10 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 46 games (+6.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 72% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 38 games (+3.45 Units / 7% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 47 games (+13.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+11.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+9.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+1.64 Units / 24% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 28-21 against the Run Line (+2.25 Units / 3.3% ROI).
- 25-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -3.21% ROI
- 18-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.7 Units / -27.5% ROI
- 30-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.05 Units / 18.49% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 18-30 against the Run Line (-17.9 Units / -29.25% ROI).
- 15-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.15 Units / -30.19% ROI
- 17-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.55 Units / -25.74% ROI
- 28-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.4 Units / 17.75% ROI
Pirates vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Pirates vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Pirates vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Pirates vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 4.5 +135 | 4.5 -175 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% (76/233) against Nick Martinez on fastballs since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .400 (12-for-30) against Nick Martinez’s elevated fastball this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .219 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 27% (17/62) against Nick Martinez when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (17/53) against Nick Martinez in two-strike counts this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — fifth Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 10% (8 SO in 79 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (90/190) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has walked 22% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (3 games) — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Bailey Falter has walked 14% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — fifth Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 14-29 (.326) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 0-20 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .090.
The Reds are just 6-18 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 7-61 (.103) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Pirates are just 11-41 (.212) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Pirates are just 0-17 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .118 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .149.
The Reds are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Reds hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.
The Reds batted just .116 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .320 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .506 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
Pirates hitters have 19 extra-base hits out of 79 total hits (just 24%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .535 (432 PA’s) over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 53% of the time since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Pirates pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
More MLB Reading:
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