- The Twins are -225 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Twins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Reds / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | BSOH
The Cincinnati Reds (+180) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-225) on Friday, September 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Reds are 71-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 67-79 ATS.
Reds vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Julian Aguiar 1-0, 5.07 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 12-6, 3.78 ERA
Reds vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -115 | O 8.5 -115 | +180 |
| Twins | -1.5 -105 | U 8.5 -105 | -225 |
Reds vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB game with 68.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 17 away games (+23.50 Units / 138% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 44 games (+18.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 48 games (+13.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 39 games (+12.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 29 of his last 45 games (+12.00 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Under in 29 of his last 33 games (+20.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 31 games (+19.50 Units / 63% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 45 games (+17.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 45 games (+17.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 33 games (+17.05 Units / 30% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 75 of their last 130 games (+13.65 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 77 of their last 133 games (+13.60 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 69 of their last 132 games (+8.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 48 away games (+6.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.30 Units / 50% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 67 games at home (+12.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 80 games (+11.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 64 games at home (+4.25 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 23 games at home (+0.90 Units / 3% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 83-65 against the Run Line (+9.8 Units / 4.97% ROI).
- 71-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.25 Units / -4.15% ROI
- 67-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.1 Units / -8.63% ROI
- 73-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -0.65% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 67-79 against the Run Line (-16.45 Units / -8.88% ROI).
- 78-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.1 Units / -3.42% ROI
- 73-65 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.8 Units / 1.13% ROI
- 65-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.8 Units / -9.86% ROI
Twins vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -300 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Twins vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Edouard Julien (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Twins vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Twins vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julian Aguiar (CIN) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
| Bailey Ober (MIN) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -160 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Julian Aguiar has struck out just 10% (2/20) of right-handed batters he faced this month (2 games) — tied for 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 13th Percentile.
Julian Aguiar has allowed a slugging percentage of just .185 (5 Total Bases / 27 ABs) this month (2 games) — 14th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: .390 — 91st Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .130 (31-for-238) against Bailey Ober’s non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .217 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .048 (2-for-42) against Bailey Ober in his last two starts — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .230 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (138/406) against Bailey Ober this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitless in 16 AB’s against Bailey Ober when going through the lineup the second time in a game in his last two starts — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .225 — 100th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Reds are just 20-31 (.392) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 34-37 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Reds are 41-24 (.631) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .584.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Twins are 136-2 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Twins are 26-102 (.203) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Twins are 62-24 (.721) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .626.
The Twins are just 15-20 (.429) after a road loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .487.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .149 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.
The Reds are batting just .116 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
The Reds are 32-15 (.681) against the run line (22.8% ROI) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .462.
The Reds are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of .762 (3,690 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Twins are batting .262 at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .753 (8,727 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Twins hitters have drawn 95 walks in 1,486 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .293 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,672 of 18,074 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 374 of 5,412 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 79 of 1,295 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 178 of 2,751 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Minnesota Twins – No Injuries Reported
- Cincinnati Reds – No Injuries Reported
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