- The Guardians are -135 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Royals / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | FDKC
The Kansas City Royals (+110) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-130) on Friday, April 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Royals are 7-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 5-7 ATS.
Royals vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Kris Bubic 2-0, 0.00 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 1-1, 6.76 ERA
Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -210 | O 7 -115 | +110 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +170 | U 7 -105 | -130 |
Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 away games (+11.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Cavan Biggio has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 away games (+8.50 Units / 85% ROI)
- Freddy Fermin has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 away games (+6.15 Units / 59% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+6.15 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.40 Units / 49% ROI)
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+10.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+10.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 94 of their last 169 games (+15.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 85 away games (+4.70 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 43 away games (+4.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 85 away games (+4.05 Units / 4% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 86 games at home (+10.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 48 of their last 85 games at home (+9.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 89 of their last 171 games (+9.70 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 86 games at home (+7.25 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 41% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 5-8 against the Run Line (-4 Units / -21.68% ROI).
- 7-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -0.34% ROI
- 5-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.6 Units / -25.53% ROI
- 8-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.5 Units / 17.24% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 5-7 against the Run Line (-3.2 Units / -19.51% ROI).
- 6-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.95% ROI
- 5-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -17.83% ROI
- 7-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.6 Units / 11.85% ROI
Guardians vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Guardians vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Guardians vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Guardians vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee (CLE) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -155 |
| Kris Bubic (KC) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kris Bubic has allowed a slugging percentage of just .156 (7 Total Bases / 45 ABs) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .372 — 98th Percentile.
Kris Bubic has allowed an OPS of just .380 (49 PA’s) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .662 — 98th Percentile.
Kris Bubic has an ERA of 0.00 (12.2 IP) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.53 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 35% (24/68) against Kris Bubic this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 93rd Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting just .195 (62-for-318) against Tanner Bibee since last season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% (180/504) against Tanner Bibee since last season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — ninth Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has allowed an OPS of 1.731 (16 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .758 — 0 Percentile.
The average home run distance against Tanner Bibee in the 2023 season was 380.0 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 399.8
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 4-54 (.069) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are just 14-81 (.147) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .299.
The Royals were just 5-28 (.152) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians were 82-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians are 87-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Guardians are 40-20 (.667) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Royals (12th best runs scored) today.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Royals hitters have just 314 strikeouts in 1,584 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .286 (6,124 PA’s) on the road since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
The Royals batted just .214 with two outs in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .612 (2,505 PA’s) in righty-righty matchups since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .701.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 1.98 (27.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.38.
Royals pitchers had an ERA of 5.39 (674.0 IP) on the road in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in 2023 — best in MLB.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .212 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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