- The Royals are -110 favorites vs the Orioles
- Royals vs Orioles Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Royals / Orioles TV Channel: FOX
The Kansas City Royals (-110) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-110) on Saturday, May 3, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Baltimore, MD, MD.
This season, the Royals are 17-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 12-19 ATS.
Royals vs Orioles Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Kris Bubic 2-2, 2.23 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Tomoyuki Sugano 3-1, 3.00 ERA
Royals vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | -1.5 +154 | O 9 -120 | -110 |
| Orioles | +1.5 -190 | U 9 +100 | -110 |
Royals vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Massey has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 20 games (+17.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 away games (+16.10 Units / 64% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+14.90 Units / 248% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.65 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ramon Urias has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+14.50 Units / 242% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+10.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.85 Units / 62% ROI)
- Dylan Carlson has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.70 Units / 23% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 33 games (+14.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+11.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+9.15 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.65 Units / 57% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.74 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+3.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+1.50 Units / 12% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 15-18 against the Run Line (-9.1 Units / -19.22% ROI).
- 17-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 4.16% ROI
- 11-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.8 Units / -32.87% ROI
- 21-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.8 Units / 23.98% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 12-19 against the Run Line (-7.65 Units / -18.98% ROI).
- 13-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.1 Units / -24.14% ROI
- 14-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.2 Units / -3.52% ROI
- 14-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.3 Units / -3.8% ROI
Orioles vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Jonathan India (KC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Ramon Laureano (BAL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Orioles vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan India (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Ramon Urias (BAL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Michael Massey (KC) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Emmanuel Rivera (BAL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Orioles vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jonathan India (KC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Orioles vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kris Bubic (KC) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +115 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) | 3.5 +135 | 3.5 -175 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kris Bubic has a strike rate of 68% when ahead in the count (fifth highest)– 95th Percentile and 64% when behind in the count this season (fifth lowest among qualified SPs)– sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 23% (8/35) against Kris Bubic when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Kris Bubic has thrown inside pitches 41% of the time (48/116) when behind in the count this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Kris Bubic has allowed a slugging percentage of just .133 (4 Total Bases / 30 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .358 — 90th Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
18% of Tomoyuki Sugano’s strikeouts are in the zone this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — first Percentile.
Tomoyuki Sugano has a strikeout rate of just 9% (5 SO in 54 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 21% — fourth Percentile.
Tomoyuki Sugano has a strikeout rate of just 13% (7 SO in 54 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 2nd lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 22% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 21% (29/135) against Tomoyuki Sugano on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 32% — second Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Royals are just 4-59 (.063) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .191.
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are just 23-67 (.256) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .375.
The Royals were just 5-28 (.152) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Orioles are just 2-10 (.167) after a win this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .503.
The Orioles are 150-22 (.872) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Orioles are 168-14 (.923) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .860.
The Orioles are just 3-17 (.150) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Royals hitters are slugging just .303 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .374.
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 7% of its PA’s against LHP since the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .658 (6,639 PA’s) on the road since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .490 (349 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .684.
The Orioles are batting just .171 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Orioles hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of 1.326 (206 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.046.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in 2023 — best in MLB.
Batters facing the Royals pitchers have struck out in the zone 59% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Royals pitchers had an ERA of 5.39 (674.0 IP) on the road in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 14% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Orioles pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.96 (136.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.66.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
More MLB Reading:
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