- The Orioles are -135 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals vs Orioles Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Royals / Orioles TV Channel: MASN | FDKC | MLBN
The Kansas City Royals (+115) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-135) on Sunday, May 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Baltimore, MD.
This season, the Royals are 18-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 12-20 ATS.
Royals vs Orioles Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Michael Lorenzen 3-3, 3.48 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson 0-1, 22.11 ERA
Royals vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -190 | O 9.5 -118 | +115 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +155 | U 9.5 -102 | -135 |
Royals vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 54.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+19.70 Units / 281% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 games (+19.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+13.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.20 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games at home (+27.60 Units / 345% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.05 Units / 65% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- Heston Kjerstad has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.25 Units / 75% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+8.30 Units / 41% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 34 games (+15.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 26 games (+12.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+10.15 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.70 Units / 61% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 27 games (+10.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 72% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.74 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 10 games at home (+1.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.05 Units / 18% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 16-18 against the Run Line (-7.9 Units / -16.34% ROI).
- 18-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.65 Units / 6.5% ROI
- 11-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.8 Units / -34.69% ROI
- 22-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.8 Units / 25.86% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 12-20 against the Run Line (-9.1 Units / -21.8% ROI).
- 13-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.2 Units / -26.29% ROI
- 14-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.2 Units / -6.28% ROI
- 15-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.3 Units / -0.85% ROI
Orioles vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Orioles vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan India (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jackson Holliday (BAL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Orioles vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Orioles vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Lorenzen (KC) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Lorenzen has allowed a .541 SLG vs right-handed batters (fifth worst)– sixth Percentile and just .268 vs left-handed batters this season (sixth best among qualified SPs)– 90th Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has walked 13% of batters when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has walked 22% of batters when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — highest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 30% (14/47) against Michael Lorenzen this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — sixth Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Gibson had a strike rate of just 56% (351/633) with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Kyle Gibson spotted his fastball inside for a strike just 52% (184/352) of the time in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Kyle Gibson had a strike rate of just 60% (1,651/2,764) in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Kyle Gibson located his fastball up for a strike just 48% (163/340) of the time in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are just 4-59 (.063) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .191.
The Royals are just 16-83 (.162) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Royals are just 1-6 (.143) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Orioles (fourth best runs scored) today.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Orioles are just 2-11 (.154) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .501.
The Orioles are just 0-18 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .040.
The Orioles are 168-14 (.923) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .860.
The Orioles are 89-60 (.597) after a loss since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .495.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .301 (3,246 PA’s) against LHP since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .293 (1,502 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Royals are batting just .317 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters are slugging just .233 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .373.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .488 (376 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .682.
The Orioles are batting just .173 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Orioles hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in 2023 — best in MLB.
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Batters facing the Royals pitchers have struck out in the zone 58% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Royals pitchers had an ERA of 5.39 (674.0 IP) on the road in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .208 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Orioles pitchers have walked 14% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Orioles pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
More MLB Reading:
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