- The Rays are -170 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals vs Rays Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Royals / Rays TV Channel: FSUN | FDKC
The Kansas City Royals (+140) visit George M. Steinbrenner Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-170) on Thursday, May 1, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Tampa, FL, FL.
This season, the Royals are 16-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 13-17 ATS.
Royals vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 2-3, 3.14 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Shane Baz 3-0, 2.46 ERA
Royals vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -125 | +140 |
| Rays | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -105 | -170 |
Royals vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 54.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+16.90 Units / 422% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+13.10 Units / 52% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+9.45 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Junior Caminero has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+12.50 Units / 125% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- Shane Baz has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.50 Units / 77% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 51% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 31 games (+14.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 23 games (+11.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games (+8.75 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.60 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.65 Units / 51% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.70 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.85 Units / 34% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 14-17 against the Run Line (-8.4 Units / -19.03% ROI).
- 16-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.25 Units / 3.32% ROI
- 10-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.6 Units / -34.52% ROI
- 20-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.9 Units / 25.72% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 13-17 against the Run Line (-4.65 Units / -12.55% ROI).
- 14-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.7 Units / -12.02% ROI
- 11-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.55 Units / -22.84% ROI
- 17-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.1 Units / 15.45% ROI
Rays vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Rays vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Chandler Simpson (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Rays vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Rays vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
| Shane Baz (TB) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -118 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo has a first-pitch strike rate of 76% (114/151) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .150 (3-for-20) against Seth Lugo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .349 — 95th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (49/151) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has walked 4% of right-handed batters since last season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 94th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Baz has a strikeout rate of 59% (22 SO in 37 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 97th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 9% (4/43) against Shane Baz this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (8/67) against Shane Baz this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Baz allowed a BABIP of .167 vs left-handed batters in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .287 — 99th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Royals are just 4-59 (.063) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .192.
The Royals are just 1-6 (.143) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Rays (29th best runs scored) today.
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are just 24-136 (.150) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Rays are 2-13 (.133) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .039.
The Rays are 144-8 (.941) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Rays are 80-1 (.988) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Rays are just 6-9 (.400) after a loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals are batting just .316 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .285 (6,559 PA’s) on the road since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .685 (3,234 PA’s) against LHP since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters struck out 343 times in 1,369 PA’s (25%) against LHP in the 2024 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays hitters had an OPS of just .669 (6,006 PA’s) in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.
The Rays are batting just .196 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
The Rays scored first in 71% of their games against division opponents in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Batters facing the Royals pitchers have struck out in the zone 59% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Royals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 21% in 2023 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals pitchers had an ERA of 5.39 (674.0 IP) on the road in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 29 double plays in 186 opportunities (16%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Rays pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
More MLB Reading:
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