- The Twins are -110 favorites vs the Guardians
- Twins vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Twins / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | BSNO | MLBN
The Minnesota Twins (-110) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-110) on Thursday, September 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Twins are 80-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 77-76 ATS.
Twins vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson 5-5, 4.11 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Joey Cantillo 2-3, 5.16 ERA
Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +155 | O 8 -115 | -110 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -105 | -110 |
Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Simeon Woods Richard has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+13.10 Units / 63% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+12.60 Units / 315% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+10.05 Units / 49% ROI)
- Simeon Woods Richard has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+10.00 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 15 games (+17.60 Units / 117% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 23 games at home (+10.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Bo Naylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.90 Units / 76% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+9.40 Units / 28% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 86 games (+14.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 away games (+7.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 26 away games (+4.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 away games (+3.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.05 Units / 20% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 61 games (+12.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 88 of their last 153 games (+11.82 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 71 games at home (+9.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 75% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 70-82 against the Run Line (-16.4 Units / -8.49% ROI).
- 80-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.1 Units / -5.13% ROI
- 77-66 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.7 Units / 2.83% ROI
- 66-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.95 Units / -11.38% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 77-76 against the Run Line (+3.45 Units / 1.81% ROI).
- 88-65 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.82 Units / 5.95% ROI
- 68-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.95 Units / -8.84% ROI
- 75-68 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.25 Units / 0.15% ROI
Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Manuel Margot (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Cantillo (CLE) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .412 (21 GB hits out of 51 GBs) against Simeon Woods Richardson with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: .257 — first Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 52 of Simeon Woods Richardson’s 232 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 22%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.
The last hit on a Simeon Woods Richardson curveball was August 10th. Hitters are 0 for their last 18 in ABs ending on his curveball. — Caleb Thielbar has the longest active streak at 22.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 34% (77/225) against Simeon Woods Richardson this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 43% — sixth Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joey Cantillo has allowed an OBP of just .125 (32 PA’s) against right-handed batters in his last two starts — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .273 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .125 (5-for-40) against Joey Cantillo in his last two starts — tied for 6th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .226 — 94th Percentile.
Joey Cantillo has not walked any of the 32 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters in his last two starts — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Joey Cantillo has allowed an OPS of just .296 (41 PA’s) in his last two starts — 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .651 — 97th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are 138-2 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Twins are just 1-62 (.016) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Twins are 26-103 (.202) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Twins are 62-26 (.705) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .626.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 24-29 (.453) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Guardians are 47-28 (.627) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .524.
The Guardians are 73-2 (.973) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Guardians are 78-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of .760 (3,757 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Twins hitters have an OBP of .325 (8,910 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Twins hitters have an OBP of .331 (2,795 PA’s) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Twins hitters are slugging .621 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .294 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
Guardians hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Guardians have barrels in 4% of PA’s since last season (442/11,736) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 392 of 5,639 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 182 of 2,805 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .222 against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Guardians pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.87 runs per game (133/153) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
Guardians vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
- Minnesota Twins – No Injuries Reported
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