- The Twins are -120 favorites vs the Pirates
- Twins vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Twins / Pirates TV Channel: ATV+
The Minnesota Twins (-125) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) on Friday, June 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Twins are 33-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 34-28 ATS.
Twins vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Joe Ryan 4-4, 3.39 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 7-3, 3.44 ERA
Twins vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +140 | O 8 -110 | -125 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -165 | U 8 -110 | +105 |
Twins vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 18 away games (+28.80 Units / 160% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 29 games (+13.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+10.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ryan Jeffers has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+10.70 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+13.80 Units / 44% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+12.00 Units / 133% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+9.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+9.45 Units / 23% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games (+6.64 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 42 games (+6.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games (+6.00 Units / 11% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games (+12.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+9.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+8.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.60 Units / 35% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 28-34 against the Run Line (-9.8 Units / -11.97% ROI).
- 33-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -2.89% ROI
- 27-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -10.57% ROI
- 31-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.1 Units / 1.64% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 34-28 against the Run Line (+3.51 Units / 4.26% ROI).
- 29-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.15 Units / -7.13% ROI
- 32-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.7 Units / 5.39% ROI
- 26-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.57 Units / -12.65% ROI
Pirates vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Pirates vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Pirates vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
| Joe Ryan (MIN) | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -140 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Ryan has a strike rate of 80% (140/175) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 70% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 28% (29/105) against Joe Ryan this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Joe Ryan has walked 4 of 108 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 91st Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .229 (8-for-35) against Joe Ryan on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .325 — 91st Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (71/218) against Mitch Keller this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .277 (167-for-603) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — seventh Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 30% (33/109) against Mitch Keller this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — fifth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 37% (40/109) against Mitch Keller this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Twins are just 18-30 (.375) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 99-1 (.990) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Twins are 22-74 (.229) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Twins are 16-86 (.157) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Pirates are just 11-15 (.423) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .574.
The Pirates are just 123-30 (.804) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .866.
The Pirates are just 16-27 (.372) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Pirates are just 28-45 (.384) after a road win since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 32 extra-base hits out of 62 total hits (52%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Twins hitters have drawn 31 walks in 587 PA’s (5%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins hitters have 145 extra-base hits out of 333 total hits (43%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
The Twins are batting just .282 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 48 strikeouts in 115 PA’s (42%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have 176 strikeouts in 497 PA’s (35%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have 19 extra-base hits out of 83 total hits (just 23%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Pirates hitters have 406 strikeouts in 1,192 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 162 of 2,296 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 137 of 2,003 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,381 of 14,877 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 50% of their games since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The average home run distance against the Pirates pitchers this season is 401.9 feet — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 395.9
Pirates vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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