- The Twins are -110 favorites vs the Pirates
- Twins vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Twins / Pirates TV Channel: BSNO | SNPT | ESPN+
The Minnesota Twins (-105) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) on Sunday, June 9, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Twins are 33-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 36-28 ATS.
Twins vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 5-4, 4.94 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jared Jones 4-5, 3.25 ERA
Twins vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +155 | O 8 -110 | -105 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -110 | -115 |
Twins vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 19 away games (+27.80 Units / 146% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 32 games (+11.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+11.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 32 games (+9.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.55 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 11 games at home (+13.40 Units / 122% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+11.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+10.10 Units / 78% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.45 Units / 39% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+9.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.79 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 44 games (+4.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 47 games (+3.75 Units / 7% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games (+11.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games (+10.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+9.55 Units / 40% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 28-36 against the Run Line (-11.8 Units / -14.06% ROI).
- 33-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.95 Units / -5.9% ROI
- 27-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.3 Units / -13.41% ROI
- 33-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.1 Units / 4.47% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 36-28 against the Run Line (+5.51 Units / 6.45% ROI).
- 31-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -3.97% ROI
- 32-28 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.5 Units / 2.12% ROI
- 28-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.57 Units / -9.39% ROI
Pirates vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Pirates vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Pirates vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Connor Joe (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Pirates vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober (MIN) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Jared Jones (PIT) | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Ober has allowed a slugging percentage of .686 (59 Total Bases / 86 ABs) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .419 — first Percentile.
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 76% of the time (1,417/1,877) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has allowed a slugging percentage of .727 (40 Total Bases / 55 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .363 — 0 Percentile.
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 84% of the time (405/481) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 89 total IP; League Avg: 55% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a swing rate of 56% (294/520) against Jared Jones this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a miss rate of 35% (103/294) against Jared Jones this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 55% of Jared Jones’ pitches (571/1,037) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 98th Percentile.
Jared Jones had a first-pitch strike rate of just 42% (10/24) — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Twins are 99-1 (.990) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Twins are 16-88 (.154) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .103.
The Twins are just 5-12 (.294) after a road loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .490.
The Twins are 20-13 (.606) after a win this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .497.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Pirates are just 11-15 (.423) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Pirates are just 14-23 (.378) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are 52-10 (.839) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .738.
The Pirates are just 31-64 (.326) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .153 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters have 32 extra-base hits out of 66 total hits (48%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Twins hitters have 102 extra-base hits out of 235 total hits (43%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Twins hitters have drawn 31 walks in 594 PA’s (5%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 48 strikeouts in 115 PA’s (42%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Pirates are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
The Pirates are batting just .235 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Pirates hitters have 406 strikeouts in 1,192 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 1,077 of 14,433 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 609 of 8,391 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,384 of 14,946 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates have won 42% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates pitchers have struck out 24% of left-handed batters they faced this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Pirates won 40% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Pirates vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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