- The Twins are -140 favorites vs the Rays
- Twins vs Rays Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Twins / Rays TV Channel: BSNO | BSUN | MLBN
The Minnesota Twins (-150) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (+125) on Thursday, September 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Twins are 75-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 70-69 ATS.
Twins vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo Lopez 13-8, 4.09 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley 6-9, 4.34 ERA
Twins vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +120 | O 7 +100 | -150 |
| Rays | +1.5 -145 | U 7 -120 | +125 |
Twins vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 57.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 28 games (+22.50 Units / 80% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 27 games (+17.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 27 games (+16.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 38 games (+15.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 38 games (+15.30 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+17.60 Units / 293% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 39 games (+11.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+10.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 39 games (+9.95 Units / 18% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 73 games (+12.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 away games (+7.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 119 games (+3.90 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 33 away games (+2.95 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 away games (+1.10 Units / 5% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 82 of their last 136 games (+24.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 74 of their last 130 games (+13.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 68 games (+10.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 63 games (+9.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 66 games (+4.25 Units / 6% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 65-74 against the Run Line (-11.75 Units / -6.67% ROI).
- 75-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.05 Units / -2.58% ROI
- 71-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.05 Units / 2.02% ROI
- 62-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.6 Units / -10.89% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 70-69 against the Run Line (-5.55 Units / -2.95% ROI).
- 69-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.2 Units / -6.07% ROI
- 64-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.1 Units / -8.6% ROI
- 71-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 0.59% ROI
Rays vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Rays vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Rays vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Rays vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez (MIN) | 6.5 -140 | 6.5 +105 |
| Taj Bradley (TB) | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -155 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .124 (12-for-97) against Pablo Lopez’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .207 — 98th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has walked 8 of 243 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 36% (229/637) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 35% (129/370) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 36% (58/160) against Taj Bradley when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Taj Bradley has a strikeout rate of 36% (65 SO in 180 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Taj Bradley has a strikeout rate of 34% (130 SO in 379 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.
Taj Bradley has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to August 12nd — Bobby Miller has the longest active streak at 10.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Twins are 62-1 (.984) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .946.
The Twins are 61-24 (.718) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .624.
The Twins are just 1-55 (.018) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Twins are 20-16 (.556) after a road win this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Rays are 12-115 (.094) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Rays are 35-62 (.361) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Rays are 124-5 (.961) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Rays are just 19-36 (.345) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .439 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
The Twins have scored 1.78 runs per game (535/301) in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.45.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .778 (2,581 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Twins hitters have drawn 89 walks in 1,400 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays hitters have 206 strikeouts in 631 PA’s (33%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Rays hitters have 298 strikeouts in 1,189 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .273 (1,233 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .305.
Twins pitchers have walked 1,269 of 17,230 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games at home in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Rays vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tampa Bay Rays – No Injuries Reported
- Minnesota Twins – No Injuries Reported
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