- The Twins are -102 favorites vs the Royals
- Twins vs Royals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Twins / Royals TV Channel: TWTV | FDKC
The Minnesota Twins (+100) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-120) on Monday, April 7, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Twins are 3-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 4-5 ATS.
Twins vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson 0-0, 4.91 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Michael Lorenzen 0-1, 5.07 ERA
Twins vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +165 | O 8 -105 | +100 |
| Royals | +1.5 -200 | U 8 -115 | -120 |
Twins vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Monday‘s MLB game with 52.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+14.30 Units / 57% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.50 Units / 47% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.90 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Massey has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+8.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 5 games (+7.00 Units / 140% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+4.65 Units / 19% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 96 games (+16.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.05 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.35 Units / 5% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 33 games (+17.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+9.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 89 of their last 159 games (+9.65 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 25% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 3-6 against the Run Line (-2.3 Units / -25% ROI).
- 3-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.8 Units / -38.25% ROI
- 5-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.8 Units / 28.43% ROI
- 2-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.65 Units / -36.68% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 4-5 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -14.6% ROI).
- 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -19.02% ROI
- 5-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 8.25% ROI
- 4-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -14.85% ROI
Royals vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Jonathan India (KC) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Royals vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Royals vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Jonathan India (KC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Royals vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Lorenzen (KC) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
| Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -115 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Simeon Woods Richardson has allowed a slugging percentage of .626 (57 Total Bases / 91 ABs) on changeups since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: .378 — first Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .415 (22 GB hits out of 53 GBs) against Simeon Woods Richardson with runners on base in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .257 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .426 (23 GB hits out of 54 GBs) against Simeon Woods Richardson with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: .258 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 18% (2/11) against Simeon Woods Richardson this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .152 (34-for-224) against Michael Lorenzen since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 100th Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen allowed a BABIP of .165 vs left-handed batters in the 2024 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .287 — 100th Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has a strike rate of just 48% (12/25) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .259 (58 Total Bases / 224 ABs) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: .409 — 99th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins were just 15-28 (.349) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Royals (12th best runs scored) today.
The Twins were 69-1 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Twins were just 1-68 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Twins were just 32-46 (.410) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Royals (sixth best runs allowed) today.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are just 14-80 (.149) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .299.
The Royals were just 5-28 (.152) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Royals are just 21-67 (.239) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .374.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .145 (76 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Twins are batting just .071 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .230.
Twins hitters are slugging just .129 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .382.
Twins hitters have 4 extra-base hits out of 5 total hits (80%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Royals hitters struck out just 298 times in 1,502 PA’s (20%) against LHP in the 2024 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of .836 (78 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Royals hitters drew 93 walks in 1,502 PA’s (6%) against LHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers walked 433 of 6,078 batters (7%) in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 901 of 12,451 batters (7%) since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers induced opposing hitters to ground into just 70 double plays in 1,033 opportunities (7%) in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 1.98 (27.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.67.
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in 2023 — best in MLB.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
More MLB Reading:
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