- The Yankees are -120 favorites vs the Guardians
- Yankees vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Yankees / Guardians TV Channel: YES | GDTV
The New York Yankees (-120) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+100) on Monday, April 21, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH, OH.
This season, the Yankees are 14-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 11-10 ATS.
Yankees vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Clarke Schmidt 0-0, 4.77 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 1-1, 4.50 ERA
Yankees vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 -105 | -120 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -115 | +100 |
Yankees vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Monday‘s MLB game with 53.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+17.20 Units / 172% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+11.10 Units / 56% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.65 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nolan Jones has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 20 games (+17.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- Kyle Manzardo has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+13.00 Units / 162% ROI)
- Nolan Jones has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 41% ROI)
- Nolan Jones has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+6.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- Kyle Manzardo has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.05 Units / 34% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 96 of their last 177 games (+15.25 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 85 away games (+10.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 85 away games (+3.10 Units / 3% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 84 games at home (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 47 of their last 83 games at home (+10.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 88 of their last 171 games (+9.60 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 84 games at home (+6.60 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.95 Units / 42% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 11-11 against the Run Line (+1.1 Units / 4.5% ROI).
- 14-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 12.09% ROI
- 11-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.25 Units / 5.22% ROI
- 9-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.2 Units / -13.09% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 11-10 against the Run Line (-0.75 Units / -2.53% ROI).
- 12-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units / 14.34% ROI
- 10-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.4 Units / 1.76% ROI
- 9-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -2 Units / -8.53% ROI
Guardians vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr (NYY) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Guardians vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Gabriel Arias (CLE) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Guardians vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr (NYY) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams (CLE) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Clarke Schmidt (NYY) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Clarke Schmidt since the 2023 season is 382.9 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: 398.9
Clarke Schmidt has an average spin rate of 2970.3 RPM on sliders since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: 2434.7 — 100th Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt had a strike rate of just 59% (274/465) in two strike counts in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a line drive rate of just 18% (43/243) against Clarke Schmidt in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gavin Williams has a first-pitch strike rate of just 40% (19/47) in his last two starts — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Gavin Williams has a first-pitch strike rate of just 50% (42/84) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Gavin Williams had a strike rate of just 53% (54/102) in his last start — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 34% (17/50) against Gavin Williams when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Yankees are 86-26 (.768) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .625.
The Yankees are 55-13 (.809) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Yankees are 56-35 (.615) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .469.
The Yankees were 48-10 (.828) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians are just 3-70 (.041) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .097.
The Guardians were 82-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Guardians are 82-3 (.965) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .860.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters are slugging .502 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .368.
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 13% of its PA’s when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 11% of its PA’s against LHP since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Guardians are batting .458 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Guardians hitters struck out just 351 times in 1,910 PA’s (18%) against LHP in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have walked 12% of batters this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 13% of batters this month (19 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .213 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
More MLB Reading:
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