- The Yankees are -120 favorites vs the Guardians
- Yankees vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Yankees / Guardians TV Channel: TBS | truT | Max
The New York Yankees (-120) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+100) on Saturday, October 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Yankees are 100-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 85-85 ATS.
Yankees vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Carlos Rodon 17-10, 3.92 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 12-9, 3.50 ERA
Yankees vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +145 | O 7.5 -120 | -120 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -175 | U 7.5 +100 | +100 |
Yankees vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Trevino has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 37 games (+17.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 37 games (+14.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 27 of his last 38 games (+14.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+12.05 Units / 201% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 37 games (+11.40 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 31 games (+29.80 Units / 96% ROI)
- Bo Naylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.15 Units / 55% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 46 games (+12.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 36 games (+9.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+9.20 Units / 33% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 113 games (+20.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 51 of their last 85 away games (+19.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 away games (+8.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 85 away games (+8.30 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 away games (+4.05 Units / 22% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 78 games (+16.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 81 games at home (+11.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 80 games at home (+11.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.75 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.60 Units / 24% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 88-82 against the Run Line (+11.4 Units / 5.64% ROI).
- 100-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.35 Units / -3.47% ROI
- 90-74 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.15 Units / 4.34% ROI
- 74-90 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.8 Units / -13.28% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 85-85 against the Run Line (+1.25 Units / 0.58% ROI).
- 96-74 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.55 Units / 4.35% ROI
- 74-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.55 Units / -10.45% ROI
- 85-74 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.35 Units / 1.79% ROI
Guardians vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Guardians vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Gleyber Torres (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Guardians vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr (NYY) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee (CLE) | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +110 |
| Carlos Rodon (NYY) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Rodon had an ERA of 6.48 (50.0 IP) against division opponents in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.56 — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a groundball rate of just 33% (129/387) against Carlos Rodon in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 35% (165/474) against Carlos Rodon in the 2024 season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 37% (78/211) against Carlos Rodon in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — sixth Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Tanner Bibee in the 2023 season was 379.5 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 399.3
Tanner Bibee allowed a slugging percentage of .439 (112 Total Bases / 255 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — 16th Percentile.
Opponents batted .398 (35-for-88) against Tanner Bibee on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2024 season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .330 — 11th Percentile.
The average home run distance against Tanner Bibee since last season is 383.8 feet — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 398.5
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Yankees are 79-23 (.775) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .626.
The Yankees are 122-36 (.772) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .638.
The Yankees are 150-11 (.932) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Yankees are 140-14 (.909) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .858.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Guardians are 40-174 (.187) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Guardians are 147-4 (.974) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Guardians are 65-9 (.878) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Guardians are 90-26 (.776) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 333 walks in 2,976 PA’s (11%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 495 walks in 4,525 PA’s (11%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters drew 672 walks in 6,245 PA’s (11%) in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have just 2,444 strikeouts in 13,061 PA’s (19%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,649 strikeouts in 8,477 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .210 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Yankees pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in 65% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .228 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Guardians vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
- New York Yankees – No Injuries Reported
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