- The Yankees are -125 favorites vs the Orioles
- Yankees vs Orioles Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Yankees / Orioles TV Channel: MASN | YES | MLBN
The New York Yankees (-135) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (+110) on Monday, April 28, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Baltimore, MD, MD.
This season, the Yankees are 17-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 10-17 ATS.
Yankees vs Orioles Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Will Warren 1-0, 4.87 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Tomoyuki Sugano 2-1, 3.54 ERA
Yankees vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +110 | O 9 -102 | -135 |
| Orioles | +1.5 -135 | U 9 -118 | +110 |
Yankees vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Monday‘s MLB game with 52.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 15 away games (+13.05 Units / 75% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+13.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+12.20 Units / 174% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.65 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+22.00 Units / 275% ROI)
- Jordan Westburg has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+8.40 Units / 84% ROI)
- Heston Kjerstad has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+8.35 Units / 119% ROI)
- Jordan Westburg has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.75 Units / 34% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 28 games (+5.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.62 Units / 39% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+5.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.25 Units / 22% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+7.00 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.24 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 14-14 against the Run Line (+1.4 Units / 4.59% ROI).
- 17-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.1 Units / 7.59% ROI
- 13-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.05 Units / -3.45% ROI
- 13-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.43 Units / -4.59% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 10-17 against the Run Line (-8 Units / -22.35% ROI).
- 10-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.25 Units / -33.99% ROI
- 13-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.2 Units / 4.06% ROI
- 11-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.2 Units / -10.68% ROI
Orioles vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -235 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Orioles vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Anthony Volpe (NYY) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Orioles vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -140 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Orioles vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Warren (NYY) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -118 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -135 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 36% of Will Warren’s pitches (143/398) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 28% (75/269) against Will Warren in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Will Warren has allowed three-ball counts to 37% of batters they faced (32/87 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 20% — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 35% (93/268) against Will Warren this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
22% of Tomoyuki Sugano’s strikeouts are in the zone this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — first Percentile.
Tomoyuki Sugano has a strikeout rate of just 2% (1 SO in 45 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Tomoyuki Sugano has a strikeout rate of just 8% (9 SO in 113 PAs) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Tomoyuki Sugano has located his fastball inside 53% of the time (60/113) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Yankees are 45-26 (.634) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Orioles (16th best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees were 37-21 (.638) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Tigers (fifth best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees are 57-37 (.606) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .466.
The Yankees were 48-10 (.828) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Orioles are just 1-9 (.100) after a win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.
The Orioles are just 1-16 (.059) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Orioles were 36-10 (.783) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Orioles are 72-7 (.911) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have a swing rate of just 44% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Yankees hitters have chased 24% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Yankees hitters have chased 24% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters are slugging just .236 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .374.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .437 (268 PA’s) against LHP this month (20 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .682.
Orioles hitters are slugging just .209 against LHP this month (20 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .371.
Orioles hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Yankees pitchers have walked 11% of batters this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .213 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% against Orioles pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% against Orioles pitchers this month (22 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 15% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
More MLB Reading:
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