- The Yankees are -115 favorites vs the Orioles
- Yankees vs Orioles Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Yankees / Orioles TV Channel: MASN | AMZP
The New York Yankees (-115) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-105) on Wednesday, April 30, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Baltimore, MD, MD.
This season, the Yankees are 18-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 11-18 ATS.
Yankees vs Orioles Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco 2-1, 5.26 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Cade Povich 1-2, 5.11 ERA
Yankees vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +140 | O 9.5 -110 | -115 |
| Orioles | +1.5 -170 | U 9.5 -110 | -105 |
Yankees vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 52.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 games (+22.00 Units / 244% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+16.80 Units / 66% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+14.10 Units / 55% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+13.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Austin Wells has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+12.45 Units / 125% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+29.50 Units / 328% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+14.35 Units / 70% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.60 Units / 102% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.55 Units / 97% ROI)
- Heston Kjerstad has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 8 games (+9.30 Units / 98% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 30 games (+5.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.52 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 away games (+4.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+3.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+6.90 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.84 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+2.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.65 Units / 8% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 15-15 against the Run Line (+1.4 Units / 4.29% ROI).
- 18-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 6.26% ROI
- 14-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -3.53% ROI
- 14-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.53 Units / -4.58% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 11-18 against the Run Line (-8.1 Units / -21.15% ROI).
- 11-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.1 Units / -31.62% ROI
- 14-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.1 Units / 3.46% ROI
- 12-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.3 Units / -10.26% ROI
Orioles vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -250 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -800 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Cedric Mullins (BAL) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Orioles vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Anthony Volpe (NYY) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Cedric Mullins (BAL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Orioles vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
Orioles vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cade Povich (BAL) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Carlos Carrasco (NYY) | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -145 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Carrasco allowed a slugging percentage of .830 (39 Total Bases / 47 ABs) on low fastballs in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .430 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .824 (61 Total Bases / 74 ABs) on inside fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .412 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .690 (29 Total Bases / 42 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (5 games) — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: .367 — second Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of .904 (639 PA’s) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: .702 — 0 Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cade Povich has a strike rate of 76% (75/99) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .322 (19-for-59) against Cade Povich when ahead in the count this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .194 — third Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .366 (30-for-82) against Cade Povich this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .245 — second Percentile.
Cade Povich had a strikeout rate of just 13% (10/76) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Yankees are 45-26 (.634) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Orioles (16th best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees are 58-14 (.806) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Yankees are 89-27 (.767) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .625.
The Yankees were 37-21 (.638) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Tigers (fifth best runs allowed) today.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Orioles are just 1-10 (.091) after a win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Orioles are just 0-17 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .109.
The Orioles are just 0-17 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .040.
The Orioles are just 10-14 (.417) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have an OPS of .895 (561 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .736.
Yankees hitters have a swing rate of just 44% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Yankees hitters have an OBP of .424 (144 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Yankees hitters are slugging .539 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .492 (343 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .688.
The Orioles are batting just .154 against LHP this month (22 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .254 (343 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Orioles hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have walked 12% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .213 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 14% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.56 (118.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.62.
The Orioles have allowed 7.00 runs per game (91/13) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.
Batters facing the Orioles pitchers have struck out in the zone 46% of the time this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
More MLB Reading:
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