- The Padres are -120 favorites vs the Yankees
- Yankees vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Yankees / Padres TV Channel: YES | PDTV
The New York Yankees (+100) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-120) on Saturday, May 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Yankees are 36-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 28-26 ATS.
Yankees vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman 3-2, 3.07 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 5-3, 3.05 ERA
Yankees vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -225 | O 7 +100 | +100 |
| Padres | -1.5 +165 | U 7 -130 | -120 |
Yankees vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 17 games (+15.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+15.40 Units / 220% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+15.25 Units / 57% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 46 games (+13.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+10.90 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 38 games (+22.80 Units / 60% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 38 of his last 50 games (+19.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+17.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 22 games at home (+16.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+15.20 Units / 33% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 19 games (+14.90 Units / 67% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 19 games (+13.65 Units / 58% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 22 games (+12.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 53 games (+12.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.00 Units / 33% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games at home (+10.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+7.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.65 Units / 31% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 30-23 against the Run Line (+11.2 Units / 17.64% ROI).
- 36-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +12 Units / 15.21% ROI
- 23-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.65 Units / -13.17% ROI
- 28-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.75 Units / 4.7% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 28-26 against the Run Line (+3.5 Units / 5.24% ROI).
- 27-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -8.07% ROI
- 29-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.85 Units / 4.84% ROI
- 24-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.2 Units / -13.68% ROI
Padres vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -350 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Padres vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Anthony Volpe (NYY) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Padres vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 +105 |
| Marcus Stroman (NYY) | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -130 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marcus Stroman has located his fastballs down 58% of the time (234/402) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 98th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has walked 15 of 102 left-handed batters (15%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has allowed three-ball counts to 30% of batters they faced (40/134 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — second Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has located his pitches away 75% of the time (399/529) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has allowed an OBP of just .242 (231 PAs) this season — sixth best among qualified SPs– 94th Percentile. He allowed an OBP of .332 (783 PAs) last season — third worst among qualified SPs– sixth Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .134 (15-for-112) against Dylan Cease this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (218/559) against Dylan Cease on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 99th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has struck out 34% (42/123) of right-handed batters he faced this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Yankees are 23-18 (.561) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Yankees are 173-11 (.940) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Yankees are 92-28 (.767) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .635.
The Yankees are 54-52 (.509) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .365.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Padres are just 7-20 (.259) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .426.
The Padres are just 8-143 (.053) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Padres are just 19-35 (.352) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Padres are just 1-91 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are slugging .761 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .550.
Yankees hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 1,846 of their 7,987 plate appearances (23%) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees hitters are slugging .496 against RHP this month (22 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 80% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Yankees pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 23% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Yankees pitchers have an ERA of 2.77 (474.0 IP) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .215 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (5,179 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this month (21 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 43% with two-strikes this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Anthony Volpe (New York Yankees): Illness, Day-To-Day
- Lou Trivino (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Scott Effross (New York Yankees): Back, 60-Day IL
- Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- McKinley Moore (New York Yankees): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Weber (New York Yankees): Forearm, Out
- DJ LeMahieu (New York Yankees): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Oscar Gonzalez (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
- Jorbit Vivas (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
- Tommy Kahnle (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Oswald Peraza (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
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