- The Yankees are -170 favorites vs the Pirates
- Yankees vs Pirates Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Yankees / Pirates TV Channel: YES | SNPT
The New York Yankees (-165) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) on Saturday, April 5, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Yankees are 5-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 2-6 ATS.
Yankees vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman 0-0, 5.79 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 0-0, 3.00 ERA
Yankees vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 -110 | O 9.5 +100 | -165 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -110 | U 9.5 -120 | +140 |
Yankees vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 58.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+29.50 Units / 421% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+8.45 Units / 121% ROI)
- Austin Wells has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.10 Units / 45% ROI)
- Austin Wells has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.35 Units / 52% ROI)
- Austin Wells has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 away games (+6.30 Units / 62% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 3 games (+10.00 Units / 333% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+7.25 Units / 56% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.20 Units / 85% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 59% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 119 games (+19.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 77 away games (+16.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 28 away games (+9.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.80 Units / 74% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 64 games at home (+11.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+7.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 67 of their last 123 games (+5.40 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+3.65 Units / 17% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 5-2 against the Run Line (+4.05 Units / 52.94% ROI).
- 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.55 Units / 25.12% ROI
- 5-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.85 Units / 37.5% ROI
- 2-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.55 Units / -45.51% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 2-6 against the Run Line (-4.35 Units / -43.72% ROI).
- 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.7 Units / -51.09% ROI
- 3-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.65 Units / -29.12% ROI
- 5-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.85 Units / 21.76% ROI
Pirates vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -220 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jasson Dominguez (NYY) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Pirates vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr (NYY) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jasson Dominguez (NYY) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Pirates vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -115 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr (NYY) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Anthony Volpe (NYY) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Pirates vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
| Marcus Stroman (NYY) | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marcus Stroman located 76% of his pitches away (1,039/1,360) against right-handed batters in the 2024 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman threw fastballs down 56% of the time (657/1,169) in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 99th Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting .353 (60-for-170) against Marcus Stroman since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: .243 — first Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (143/246) against Marcus Stroman when he’s behind in the count since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 97th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (437/964) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (13/47) against Bailey Falter on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (55/365) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 0 Percentile.
Bailey Falter has an average spin rate of 1938.6 RPM on curveballs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 2533.3 — third Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Yankees were 37-21 (.638) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Pirates (21st best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees were 48-10 (.828) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Yankees are 83-23 (.783) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .627.
The Yankees were 50-31 (.617) on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates were just 65-7 (.903) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates were just 40-47 (.460) after a loss in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .504.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are slugging 1.500 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .604.
Yankees hitters have an OBP of .468 (47 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .294.
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters are slugging .736 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .385.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 1 extra-base hit out of 7 total hits (just 14%) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .506 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .378 against RHP since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Pirates hitters slugged just .511 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Yankees pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 536.1 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 473.2
Opponents have a swing rate of just 43% against the Yankees pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have 277 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — 3rd most in MLB.
Pirates pitchers have walked 34 of 313 batters (11%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed 4 home runs this season — tied for 2nd fewest in MLB.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .290 against Pirates pitchers with the shift since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
More MLB Reading:
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