- The Yankees are -145 favorites vs the Royals
- Yankees vs Royals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Yankees / Royals TV Channel: YES | FDKC | MLBN
The New York Yankees (-145) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+120) on Thursday, June 12, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Yankees are 41-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 35-33 ATS.
Yankees vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Will Warren 4-3, 5.34 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 3-5, 3.46 ERA
Yankees vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +115 | O 9 -110 | -145 |
| Royals | +1.5 -140 | U 9 -110 | +120 |
Yankees vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 57.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+15.65 Units / 45% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+11.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- Austin Wells has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+11.10 Units / 278% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.05 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.40 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+13.50 Units / 193% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+11.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 66 games (+12.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 66 games (+10.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 51 games (+8.12 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 31 games (+7.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 68 games (+27.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 33 games at home (+13.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games (+10.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 46 games (+7.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+5.95 Units / 9% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 32-34 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -2.45% ROI).
- 41-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.75 Units / 4.44% ROI
- 30-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.7 Units / -9.3% ROI
- 34-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.07 Units / 1.46% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 35-33 against the Run Line (-7 Units / -7.2% ROI).
- 34-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -0.06% ROI
- 28-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.32 Units / -19.29% ROI
- 39-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.2 Units / 10.88% ROI
Royals vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -295 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Royals vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Volpe (NYY) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +170 |
| DJ LeMahieu (NYY) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jac Caglianone (KC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Royals vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Anthony Volpe (NYY) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Royals vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Warren (NYY) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -110 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 41% of Will Warren’s pitches (430/1,050) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 15% (2/13) against Will Warren in his last start — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 40% (262/650) against Will Warren this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 36% (263/720) against Will Warren in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo has allowed an OBP of just .249 (497 PA’s) against right-handed batters since last season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .287 — 93rd Percentile.
Seth Lugo walked 13 of 288 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 18% (48/260) against Seth Lugo on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2024 season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 10th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 20% (178/869) against Seth Lugo since last season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — eighth Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Yankees are 53-29 (.646) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Royals (sixth best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees were 37-21 (.638) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Tigers (fifth best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees are 16-8 (.667) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Royals (sixth best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees were 48-10 (.828) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals were just 5-28 (.152) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Royals are just 19-91 (.173) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .298.
The Royals are just 90-123 (.423) after a loss since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have an OBP of .355 (1,363 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Yankees hitters are slugging .475 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .376.
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 12% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals are batting .236 with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .165.
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Royals hitters have put 42% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in 2023 — best in MLB.
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Royals pitchers had an ERA of 2.97 (460.2 IP) against division opponents in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.06.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .134 against Royals pitchers this month (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
More MLB Reading:
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