- The Yankees are -135 favorites vs the Twins
- Yankees vs Twins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Yankees / Twins TV Channel: TBS | BSNO | YES
The New York Yankees (-120) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (+100) on Tuesday, May 14, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Yankees are 27-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 22-18 ATS.
Yankees vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Carlos Rodon 3-2, 3.12 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Chris Paddack 4-1, 4.34 ERA
Yankees vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +140 | O 8.5 -110 | -120 |
| Twins | +1.5 -165 | U 8.5 -110 | +100 |
Yankees vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 61.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 18 games (+19.40 Units / 108% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+14.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 22 away games (+11.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 22 away games (+11.25 Units / 50% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 41 games (+8.05 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 16 games (+29.20 Units / 183% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+14.95 Units / 48% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+11.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 17 games (+10.70 Units / 63% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.35 Units / 36% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 43 away games (+12.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+9.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.60 Units / 29% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+2.85 Units / 4% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 21-21 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 5.06% ROI).
- 27-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.8 Units / 9.7% ROI
- 18-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.05 Units / -13.17% ROI
- 22-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.2 Units / 4.74% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 22-18 against the Run Line (+3.6 Units / 6.81% ROI).
- 24-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.65 Units / 6.84% ROI
- 20-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.4 Units / 3.26% ROI
- 17-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.05 Units / -11.77% ROI
Twins vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -275 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Twins vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo (NYY) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Gleyber Torres (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Anthony Rizzo (NYY) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Twins vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Alex Verdugo (NYY) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Twins vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Paddack (MIN) | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Carlos Rodon (NYY) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Rodon has a first-pitch strike rate of just 56% (105/186) this season — 5th lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 63% — 10th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon has allowed a slugging percentage of .360 (32 Total Bases / 89 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 4th highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: .262 — eighth Percentile.
Carlos Rodon has located his fastball away 57% of the time (233/411) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (33/103) against Carlos Rodon this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — sixth Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have no hits on inside fastballs in 20 AB’s against Chris Paddack this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 100th Percentile.
Chris Paddack has allowed a slugging percentage of .000 (0 TB / 20 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: .416 — 100th Percentile.
Chris Paddack has a strikeout rate of just 14% (7 SO in 49 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .289 (24-for-83) against Chris Paddack when ahead in the count this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: .192 — fourth Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Yankees are 22-18 (.550) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Yankees are 28-4 (.875) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
The Yankees are 122-32 (.792) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Yankees are 86-27 (.761) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .637.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Twins are 21-61 (.256) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Twins are just 17-30 (.362) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 43-14 (.754) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .616.
The Twins are 15-73 (.170) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees are batting just .232 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Yankees hitters have put 45% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 1,739 of their 7,571 plate appearances (23%) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Yankees are batting .399 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 104 extra-base hits out of 235 total hits (44%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Twins hitters have 1,557 strikeouts in 5,876 PA’s (27%) against RHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins are batting just .153 with two-strikes since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .779 (2,452 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .213 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Yankees pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 26% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Yankees have won 58% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Anthony Volpe (New York Yankees): Illness, Day-To-Day
- Lou Trivino (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Scott Effross (New York Yankees): Back, 60-Day IL
- Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- McKinley Moore (New York Yankees): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Weber (New York Yankees): Forearm, Out
- DJ LeMahieu (New York Yankees): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Oscar Gonzalez (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
- Jorbit Vivas (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
- Tommy Kahnle (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Oswald Peraza (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
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